Slow but safe. This is the step that the Stock Exchanges have been marking in these 10 weeks of 2019. While in the US, the main stock indices register gains close to 10% in this period and in Europe the Cac de Paris and the Ftse Mib do the same. the rest points to revaluations of the environment of 8%, the experts are reluctant to throw the bells on the fly at the time of assessing whether this upward trend has come to stay. And more after the response that the market has given to Draghi's speech last Thursday in which, among other things, revised macro forecasts downward and delayed the rate hike.
"It's almost scary to say that the market fund is too good," they explain from the Bankinter analysis department. And is that the increases that are occurring in the parks are not accompanied by volume and there are investors in liquidity away from the markets. March seems a good month to re-enter the Stock Exchange although the trend of the indexes will be marked by the political calendar. Two major issues focus attention: Brexit and commercial war between the US and China.
Since MacroYield they recall that "the month has just begun which, at least in the last 20 years, has been more favorable for the S & P 500. This year, in addition, March may be the month of the confirmation of the trade agreement between China and the US, the of the neutralization of the messy Brexit and that of the first green shoots in the economies of China and Europe ".
Juan José Fernández-Figares, director of analysis of Link Securities, explains that the most positive scenario for the stock markets, which could restore confidence to investors who remain liquid outside the markets, would be one in which a date and a place for the meeting between the US president will be closed , Trump, and his Chinese namesake, Xi, and in which the proposal of soft brexit of Theresa May was approved in the British Parliament or that the date of departure was delayed in time due to lack of agreement.
The expert doubts "much that Trump and Xi meet if an agreement has not been closed, so only the announcement that there will be a meeting, with a specific date and place, will be very well received by the Stock Exchanges, since it would clear, now for a long time, one of the biggest uncertainties that have been weighing on economies and markets in the last year ".
This week, Wall Street Journal It pointed to March 27 as a possible date to sign a commercial agreement between the two superpowers. If this agreement comes to be confirmed, experts expect a moderate rise in the stock markets because the markets have already discounted it these first months of the year.
As for Brexit, analysts agree that what the market is already discounting is that it delays leaving the United Kingdom for a few more months. The chained vote next week in the British Parliament – between Tuesday and Thursday will vote on the agreement with the EU again, if there is no agreement they will vote out without agreement and finally on Thursday, the extension of deadlines.
"We had all marked on the calendar on March 29 as the date of the Brexit, but surely we have to postpone it. What seems more logical and what is already being discounted is that it delays the departure of the United Kingdom a few months, "he explains. Victoria Torre, head of analysis and product of Self Bank.
In any case, volatility will be present in the stock exchanges in the remainder of the month. Miguel Paz, investment director at Unicorp Patrimonio, believes that, even if there are agreements, there are no incentives to make the increases with strength and volume. "We will have to wait until April and be cleared once and for all the fears of a recession in developed countries, to think of new consistent increases in the market," adds the analyst who also believes that there will be profit taking in securities and sectors that have led the recovery of the Stock Exchanges, which may imply a sectorial rotation.