March 3, 2021

What happens from now on with the "brexit"?

What happens from now on with the "brexit"?

The British Parliament failed to agree on Monday on four possible alternatives to the "brexit" proposed by the government of the conservative Theresa May.

The House of Commons turned its back on a "brexit" that would include a customs union with the European Union (EU), the option of a softer disconnection with the Norwegian-style block, to revoke the "brexit" if there is no agreement and submit a referendum any agreement that would pass the parliamentary procedure.

Given this situation, these are now the possible scenarios of the "brexit":

– The Parliament again pronounced a third time on a series of possible "indicative votes" to find a way of consensus in this process.

– The "premier" is submitting for the fourth time to its treaty in the House of Commons, after last Friday the parliamentarians rejected it by a margin of 58 votes.

If it went ahead, then the United Kingdom would leave the community block in an orderly manner on May 22.

– If Parliament rejects the agreement reached between London and Brussels, as it did in January by a margin of 230 votes, on March 12 for 149 and on March 29, 58, then three possible options are opened:

– Abrupt departure on April 12. If neither Government nor Parliament manage to agree an alternative way to pose to the EU to justify an extension in another session of "indicative" votes.

– Convene a second referendum. Faced with the blockade of the situation could be held another plebiscite of the "Brexit", although it seems unlikely because of the refusal shown by the Executive to this proposal in recent months.

– Call for general elections. The prime minister could opt ultimately and not succeed in advancing in the impasse of "brexit", call early elections in the country, this being the preferred choice by the Labor Party.

In any case, these last two options would require that the European bloc would have allowed the date of the "Brexit" to be postponed more, so that it would give time for the celebration of those hypothetical referendums and elections.

Next April 10 the European Council holds a summit in which London will have to explain how it will proceed and communicate it to Brussels before April 12, the deadline for the United Kingdom to clarify whether or not it participates in the European elections in May.


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