United Podemos and Vox come back in the CIS at the expense of the two great parties

CIS November 2021

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)

The barometer of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) for November leaves bad prospects for PSOE and PP. The Socialists deepened in the fall of the last months while the popular ones have not managed to cut the distance and fall back to the data of September, when the party collapsed after the momentum acquired in summer. The great beneficiaries United Podemos and Vox.

The CIS study published this Wednesday shows a fall in the PSOE that leaves it below its November results. It would obtain 27.6% of the votes if elections were repeated now, for the 28% it reached in the general elections. These data also represent a drop of almost one point compared to the latest barometer and away from its best prospects, which came to place training above 30% in voting estimates. That fall benefits United We Can, which is above its electoral data.

The field work of this barometer was carried out between November 2 and 11, in the middle of a clash between PSOE and United We Can – and in particular, between Nadia Calviño and Yolanda Díaz – for the management of the labor reform that should end the rule imposed by the PP in 2012.

The center directed by José Félix Tezanos also brings bad news for Pablo Casado this month. He had managed to cut distances with the Socialists, but this month it falls again and goes from 22.1% in October to 20.9. They are not his worst forecasts (it fell from 18% in March this year), but he sees the possibility of returning for now to the vote estimate that he reached in summer, where he touched 24%, disappears for now.

CIS November 2021 compared to 10N

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)

United Podemos and Vox are the great beneficiaries of these falls. Yolanda Díaz’s party reaches its best data in the November barometer: it is placed with 13.6% in voting intention, almost two points more than a month ago. The training thus moves away from the worst data (it fell from 10% a few months ago), consolidates the rise that began in July and is above the 10N results.

On the part of the extreme right, their improvement is of more than one point: they would have 14.3% of the votes if elections were held now, compared to 13.2 in October. That rise takes them out of the stagnation of recent months, although Santiago Abascal’s party is still far from its best results and the 15.1% they obtained in November 2019.

Citizens falls again. Right now he would obtain 5.7% of the votes in the general elections, compared to the 6% that the last barometer gave him and the 6.8% of the 10N. The formation of Inés Arrimadas returns to its worst data and is far from the 10.5% that it reached a year ago. As for the rest of the parties, the fall of ERC stands out, which leaves five tenths and remains at 2.6% of the vote estimate, one point less than in 2019.

Yolanda Díaz remains the most valued

The second vice president is, again, the most valued political leader ahead of Pedro Sánchez. Díaz obtained a note of 4.76 compared to 4.45 for the Prime Minister. Both barely register changes compared to the last barometer.

Behind them is the leader of Más País, Íñigo Errejón, with 4.1; Inés Arrimadas with a 3.6; Pablo Casado gets a 3.4 – these last three fall one tenth – and Santiago Abascal repeats as the worst valued political leader with a score of 2.8.


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