September 27, 2020

Unemployment registers the largest increase in October since 2012 at the gates of the November 10 elections

On November 5 it was marked in red on the La Moncloa calendar. After a disastrous Active Population Survey (EPA), it was assumed that the unemployment data for November would be bad, as confirmed yesterday. Hence the Pedro Sánchez pressures to advance the electoral debate one day. The acting president of the Government did not want to confront his political adversaries under any other concept with another negative indicator for the Spanish economy. However, the appointment with the polls is in less than a week, which means that the worst data of unemployment in Spain since 2012, in the midst of a crisis, has burst out on the face of the PSOE in full election campaign. Since Sanchez rules, unemployment has risen by 15,497 people, with a balance of 17 new unemployed every day.

The number of unemployed has risen in October by 97,948 people in relation to the previous month. This is twice as many unemployed as a year ago, in a month traditionally very negative for employment since 46 years ago, October left more unemployed. This figure places the number of unemployed people at 3,177,659, the lowest in a month of October since 2008. However, the October figure is the worst record for this month in seven years, which gives an idea of abrupt slowdown in the labor market. Further, in the last twelve months unemployment has barely dropped by 77,000 people. In 2018 it fell in more than 212,000 people; in 2017 at almost 300,000; and in 2016 in more than 411,000. In this way, it is the weakest annual fall in unemployment since 2013.

In seasonally adjusted terms, unemployment has risen by 29,153 people in October. Male unemployment stands at 1,304,137 people, rising 53,417 (+ 4.27%) and female unemployment 1,873,522, increasing 44,531 (+ 2.43%) in relation to September. If we compare it with October 2018, male unemployment falls by 36,053 (-2.69%) people, and female unemployment is reduced by 40,991 (-2.14%). The labor market figures have been especially hard on young people. Unemployment of children under 25 in October increased by 17,851 people (+ 7.18%) in relation to the previous month, while unemployment of 25 years and over rises by 80,097 (+ 2.83%).

The total number of contracts registered during the month of October has been 2,224,757, which represents a reduction of 18,696 (-0.83%) over the same month of 2018. Of the total contracts, 237,866 are indefinite , (10.69% of the total) and 1,986,891 are temporary contracts. They especially fall undefined, With a decrease of 1.8% in the month and 4.8% in the accumulated of 2019. Since March they have been falling incessantly and they have accumulated eight months followed by falls. On the contrary, in temporary figures, temporary contracts soar by 7%. As for the duration of the day, in October 131,015 full-time indefinite contracts, 72,914 part-time contracts and 33,937 fixed discontinuous ones were concluded.

The only point where unemployment figures are slightly saved is in job creation. Social Security membership grew by 106,541 people, 25,000 fewer jobs than a year ago but above the years before 2018. The average membership reached 19,429,993 workers in October. It is the second largest increase in the historical series in that month, only surpassed by October 2018. Of course, the system accounted for a Rise in the last twelve months of 436,920 affiliates, 125,624 fewer jobs than a year ago and the weakest data since 2014. In these four years, at this point the half million increase in membership was far exceeded, even reaching more than 617,000 in 2017.

The General Regime, meanwhile, has had a better behavior, growing 2.71%. This means 424,193 affiliates more than in 2018. In the case of the self-employed, there is practically a stagnation, since the number of affiliated entrepreneurs has only risen 0.4% in the last year. For a total of 3.27 million freelancers, the increase of the last twelve months is only 13,364 new businesses.

As usual in the months of September and October, membership figures appear "doped" for the massive hiring of interim teachers, also dismissed massively in summer to save those payrolls and rehired once the course begins and the templates of the educational centers are configured. This caused membership affiliation to rise almost 19% in October in Education, where 151,000 people were hired. In fact, in September it was also the sector where employment grew the most, with another 45,000 hiring. On the contrary, the end of the tourist season in Spain caused a loss of 60,638 jobs in the hospitality industry. This figure represents the worst figure in October of the decade, although the creation of employment prior to the summer season was lower than in previous years. For the employers of temporary work companies (Asempleo), this reflects that the Spanish hospitality sector is already close to its maximum productive capacity.

Social Security account barely with 2.3 members for each pensioner, which represents a slight improvement over recent years (2.28 in 2018), although still far from the 2.71 pension affiliates that were in 2007, just before the outbreak of the crisis.

The number of women members experienced a growth of 2.85% in the last year, reaching over 9 million employed (9,049,984). This is the second highest absolute value of employed women, only surpassed by the data for June this year.

The tourism does not give for more: the annual unemployment rises already in the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands

The depletion of the tourism sector, a fundamental pillar for the economy but which may be close to its ceiling, has become more palpable with the end of the season and the worst news for the sector in years: the bankruptcy of British tour operator Thomas Cook, who It brought to Spain four million tourists a year. With this panorama, two of the main sun and beach destinations already suffer from an increase in accumulated unemployment in the last twelve months: Balearic and Canary Islands. Although these are very slight increases, they give an idea of ​​the changing trend in the labor market. In the case of the Balearic Islands, the monthly data for October is the worst in Spain, after shooting 25%, eight times more than the Spanish average. In addition, four other regions have remained at the gates of moving to negative figures: Aragon, Cantabria, Castilla-La Mancha and La Rioja.

. (tagsToTranslate) h. huntsman

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