With a new estimation technique, an attempt is made to overcome the inconveniences in the analysis of the data generated by the asymptomatic infected
Three researchers from the Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics and Management of the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ULPGC) have developed
a new system to assess the effectiveness of health measures taken by the Spanish Government during the covid-19 pandemic.
It is a new methodology for
estimate the evolution of the epidemiological parameters of the SIRD model (acronym in English for Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased), in which researchers Eduardo Acosta González, Julián Andrada Félix and Fernando Fernández Rodríguez have worked and authors of an article published on their work.
'Evolution of the epidemiological parameters of covid-19 from the series of deaths. A study of the epidemic in Spain using genetic algorithms',
It has been published in the specialized journal 'Mathematics and Computers in Simulation'.
The new estimation technique tries to overcome the problem generated by this virus in terms of
number of asymptomatic infected people it produceswhich greatly hinders a correct appreciation of the model parameters.
Thus, the estimate is based on the
information on the number of deaths that are recorded as the disease progresses.
Changes in epidemiological parameters
The estimates carried out for the Spanish case reveal the ability of the methodology to detect changes in epidemiological parameters, such as the rate of transmission of the epidemic, as a consequence of the measures taken by the health authorities. At the same time, the methodology makes it possible to estimate the start of the epidemic in Spain.
According to the ULPGC, it is especially innovative, to the extent that it allows for easy and practical measurement of
the evolution of an epidemic when the death toll is the only reliable variable available.
It is also a system that
can be used in any geographic area affected by disease with a very high number of asymptomatic infected people, which could make it the basis for an application for data from the Canary Islands for a disease such as covid.