Types threaten, investors flee


Madrid

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Banks, foreign investors and international funds move away from public debt and return to the levels of two years ago. Non-residents hoard3 billion less debt than before the pandemic. Spanish banks maintain an important position, 140,000 million, which is the lowest level since 2010. Does this attitude of supporting public debt make sense just when the crisis caused by the pandemic was most virulent and withdrawing now that we have left it behind and We are moving, bad than good and slower than expected, but are we moving towards a better-looking economic scenario? Well, the logic of behavior must be sought in the alternatives. Before, excess liquidity had a bad accommodation, sandwiched between a low demand for investment - without sales, that of increasing production would not seem very sensible - and the more negative profitability offered by the security of the ECB.

On the contrary, banks now see that the era of extremely lax monetary policy is coming to an end and will be replaced by rate hikes, the full course of which is difficult to predict at the moment. You already know that public debt is materialized in fixed income products, whose profitability is fixed only if you have the patience to wait for its maturity and, until then, it has nothing fixed because it fluctuates to the fluctuations that interest rates mark. . So, your next (?) Rise will have a negative impact on all the products subscribed to that moment, offering lower returns. In colloquial language, this is called putting on the bandage before the injury occurs. A practice that fits well into the forward thinking mentality that bank leaders have or should have.

So the ECB and its supportive policy is positioned as the best, or the only one?, A solution capable of quenching the thirst for debt that states maintain, overwhelmed by health demands due to a disease that does not remit and the need to maintain social protection schemes for the many victims. Until when will it be like this? Until the frugal countries rebuild their accounts and demand that others imitate them. When will such a thing happen? No idea, but I would bet that there is little left.

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