Towards a new renewable bubble?

Towards a new renewable bubble?


The Government today presented the preliminary draft of the Climate Change Law with the objective that Spain consumes 42% of the energy coming from technologies of renewable origin in 2030. To do this, Spain must first reach next year 32% of renewable consumption and auctioning about 40,000 new green megawatts - an additional 40% to current generation capacity - until that date.

The draft bill proposes two phases, at 2030 and 2050. The first, 2030, sets the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels; generate at least 70% of electricity with renewable energy; ensure at least 35% of final energy consumption from renewable sources and improve energy efficiency by at least 35%.

By 2030, a total installed capacity in the electricity sector of 157 GW is expected, of which 50 GW will be wind energy; 37 GW solar photovoltaic; 27 GW combined gas cycles; 16 GW hydraulic; 8 GW pumping; 7 solar thermal GW, and 3 GW of nuclear.

The Minister of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera explained during her appearance in the Council of Ministers that reducing emissions by 20% compared to 1990 in 2030 will eliminate "one in three tons of carbon dioxide" and to reach a neutrality of Carbon in 2050 should reduce CO2 emissions by at least 90% compared to 1990.

The question is whether this ambitious plan will generate another renewable bubble like the one that created the first great transition 15 years ago. The penetration of renewables generated a hole in the electricity system that reached 30,000 million euros.

The preliminary draft proposes a new remuneration framework for renewable generation based on the long-term recognition of a fixed price for the energy generated. The concessions of these new megawatts will be granted through a competitive concurrency procedure and different generation technologies can be distinguished. Although the current cost of implementing the most developed renewable technologies, such as wind energy, has fallen dramatically, lowering generation prices and making these technologies competitive compared to other traditional generation sources, some experts warn that the price of the electricity will skyrocket as a result of the suppression of coal and nuclear generation.

The National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) of the Government estimates that in 2030 there will still be more than 3 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear energy in the Spanish electric mix and an orderly closure of these plants in chronological order. The final closure of the coal plants will take place in 2050.

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