Much has been said during the year that is about to end if in the real estate market is brewing another bubble similar to that of a decade ago. The sale marked a record October, with 43,536 properties, the highest figure in the tenth month in 11 years. Prices rise at a rate of 7% (rise of 2018). And employment in the sector is the fastest growing, with 22.1% more jobs than in 2017, well ahead of other sectors, according to Adecco. But brick companies deny time and again the gestation of a new bubble. In fact, they suggest that the market in 2019 will lose some strength in the expansion of supply, demand and prices.
And is that the real estate is facing some uncertainties. The most important is the reduction of the forecasts of growth of the Spanish economya (average annual variation of 2.6% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019, according to Funcas), with the consequent decline in consumer confidence. Also, it has to face up to the difficulty of access to purchase by young people and the more than likely rise in interest rates. Without neglecting the continued rise in finalist floor prices and construction costs. The fact that this increase in prices has not yet been transferred to many locations has its favor.
The prices of housing in Spain added their fifth year of consecutive growth in 2018 and the forecast of the experts of the sector is that the tendency does not break the next year, at least in the prices of sale. The calculated increase is 5%, according to the consultancy CBRE. "We are in an expansive cycle of the sector", says the director of Studies of the Fotocasa portal, Beatriz Toribio. Its forecast is that of "a more moderate growth, in line with what we have seen in the last months of 2018, as a result of the economic slowdown to which different forecasts point".
Fernando Encinar, director of Studies of the Idealista portal, indicates that we will have to remain attentive to the big cities, the archipelagos and other coastal areas. "The lack of new work in these areas will be an incentive for prices to rise, in fact, in the large markets the fewer cranes we see, the higher prices will go," says Encinar. In any case, he believes that they will not go beyond a "moderate increase".
For the appraisers, the panorama that is glimpsed is similar. Rafael Gil, director of the Tinsa Studies Service, believes that the price of housing for sale "will continue to grow in the main cities at a perhaps more contained rate". But Gil points out that this brake will not be seen so clearly in the areas that are catching the boom that has already experienced the centers of large cities in recent years: "The metropolitan areas [de Madrid y Barcelona] and other cities of the Levante peninsular and insular will continue to rise at rates similar to today, "specifies.The director of market analysis of the Appraisal Society, César Hernández, coincides in the moderation of prices throughout Spain in general, and Madrid and Barcelona in particular, but in spite of that, it considers that the two main cities will continue "again as the spearhead of the price increase".
In the rental market, the common belief is that the braking of prices will be more pronounced. "Madrid and Barcelona would have already exhausted the recent upward journey," says Gil. However, "in other cities, even below incomes of a decade ago, the increase could be something more noticeable," he says. But the two major capitals have a great influence and, in fact, the statistics of Fotocasa has already collected "the first falls" at the end of the year (0.5% in November), recalls Toribio. "The price of rentals has a ceiling, which is the purchasing power of Spanish tenants and, while this does not improve, prices can not go much further."
Purchase and Sale
The demand for housing is in its fourth consecutive year of growth, an expansion stage that will also be extended in 2019, although it will suffer a slowdown. When determining how many homes are going to be sold next year, the experts consulted agree that they will be more than this 2018, an exercise in which, for the first time since the beginning of the crisis, the middle barrier will be broken. million sales. According to the estimates of Samuel Población, national director of Residential & Land of CBRE, in 2018 580,000 operations will be closed, representing an increase of around 10% over the previous year. For 2019 it talks about consolidation, with a volume between 625,000 and 645,000 units sold. In any case, in Tinsa remember that purchases "are still far from the maximums of 2006-2007, 36% below."
Although at present the second-hand transactions (91%) surpass those of new construction, "it is expected that the finished homes will increase during the next year thanks to the growth in the number of licenses that were requested during 2016 and whose completion of work will be estimated in about two years, "says Carlos Zamora, residential director of Knight Frank. Samuel Population estimates that more than 100,000 new homes will be added to the market in 2019. Regarding visas, Daniel Cuervo, general secretary of the Association of Developers of Constructors of Spain (APCE), determines that "in 2019 will follow the increases in previous years, that is, between 15,000 and 20,000 more units, "he says.
In the patronage of promoters believe that we must be attentive to the political landscape, in which the holding of elections will mark the passage of the real estate market. "It will influence the investment decision making of foreign capital, but it is also important for the citizen because for him it is basic job stability and trust," says Cuervo. Regarding the protected housing, it does not expect big changes, since there is a state plan for the next four years and in that plan "very little money is destined, 1,400 million in four years".
Next year will be especially moved for those who decide to mortgaged. It will have good and bad news. The new mortgage law will bring an increase in the types and opening fees, which will be the only ones that can not be limited. The reason is that the bank is forced to assume certain costs that until now corresponded to the client, such as tariffs, agency and the tax on legal acts documented. It seems logical to think that, to compensate for this, "entities will increase the price of their mortgage loans and, surely, also of consumer loans," says Miquel Riera, a mortgage expert at HelpMyCash.
Will mortgages be much more expensive? The competition between entities and the struggle to get hold of clients can soften this foreseeable increase in price. In the case of the variables, "it is difficult to produce a very sharp rise in spreads because if the Euribor increases a lot, these products would no longer be competitive, so it may be more noticeable in the initial interest applied during the first years. 12 or 24 months, "explains Riera.
Santos Gonzalez, president of the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE), believes that "there will be entities that are tempted to raise spreads or opening fees at the expense of volume, but most will respond to a very competitive strategy to make clients, given that the market is not very dynamic and you can not mean very high prices because you do not sell. " "If it goes up, the differential will rise some decimals," he stresses.
The mortgaged will also have to deal with the gradual rises of the Euribor. Experts predict that by the end of next year it is expected to reach positive values, with the consequent increase in the price of variable mortgages. It will not fare better than the fixed ones, which will also rise due to the rebound effect. "It is possible that we are facing the last chance to get one of these loans at an interest rate of around 2% to 20 years," says Riera.
But there is also good news, and it is already more than clear who will pay the costs of setting up these loans. The mortgagee will be responsible for paying the appraisal and the bank will face the notarial and registration fees, the fees of the agency and the tax on legal acts documented. The cost of early repayment will also be cheaper. In variable mortgages, the bank can only charge 0.25% during the first three years or 0.15% in the first five years (later it will be free). In the fixed ones a penalty of up to 2% can be applied in the first 10 years and of 1.5% later. The move from a variable mortgage to a fixed rate will also be more economical: the bank can only charge a commission of 0.15% during the first three years. In addition, with the new law the client can take his mortgage to another bank.
In any case, you will have to be aware of how the new text is finally (you still have to pass the filter of the Senate and final approval in Congress) and what will happen to the price of mortgages after its entry into force.
When deciding whether a fixed or variable rate, the president of AHE advises to shield the mortgage cost. "A 5% type scenario seems to me to be science fiction now, but in 30 years it's impossible to know, some rise will touch you." For that reason, if González had to advise a friend or relative, he would tell him to hire a fixed mortgage because "it is an insurance, even if something else is paid". To the mortgage market, always to the compass of the residential, it will be fine, but, at the moment, no sign of a mortgage bubble. The 350,000 mortgages that will be closed in 2018 are far from the 1.2 million in 2007 or the more than 800,000 in 2008.
The year 2018 ends with a royal decree law on urgent measures in housing, in force since last Wednesday 19, whose parliamentary validation should be undertaken in a month. But negotiating those rules in Congress will not be easy. "We must develop all the measures on housing that we have started to the PSOE in the budget agreement," says Pilar Garrido, secretary of the Housing Area of Podemos. The senator repeats the condition put by the general secretary of the party, Pablo Iglesias, to support the validation of the decree: "It is necessary to control the abusive increase in rental income." Therefore, if the votes of Podemos are finally necessary, some measure aimed at the prices of the leases could appear.
But although that negotiation will center a good part of the political agenda at the start of the year, it will not be the only one. "As the Government itself has announced, there are more measures in the portfolio to completely end the adverse effects of the reform [de la Ley de Arrendamientos Urbanos] of 2013, "highlights the Secretary of Territorial Planning and Housing Policies of the PSOE, Beatriz Corredor." On the other hand, the autonomous communities will have to undertake the delimitation of rent for tourist use and would be desirable a reaction as homogeneous as possible. "
In the year of European, municipal and autonomous (and possibly also general) elections, reaching broad agreements seems complicated. "If the socialist government continues with the collaboration of Podemos, it is clear that they will continue to offer measures that will continue to strangle the market," predicts Ana Zurita, spokesperson for the PP in the Congress Development Commission. The deputy Miguel Garaulet, Housing spokesman of the Parliamentary Group of Citizens, makes a similar diagnosis: "If the Government's policy does not change, we will continue with palliative measures, some of doubtful effectiveness, loaded on the backs of the private sector while the administrations elude your own responsibility. "
The new year presents many challenges for the real estate and mortgage sector. Rafael Gil (Tinsa) would like the sale to adjust to "figures more in line with the family income available", a desire similar to that of Beatriz Toribio (Fotocasa), who asks that "access difficulties be reduced, especially Young". Daniel Cuervo, of the APCE, hopes that the time will come when the terms of the work licenses will be reduced to two months, instead of the current 14. And the same with the licenses of first occupation: "It has to be by declaration responsible or communicated act. In Madrid you wait of three to five months to deliver some floors that are already finished". Adolfo Ramírez-Escudero, president of CBRE Spain, calls for the new year greater public-private collaboration in urban management, the development of new land and, above all, improvements in the conditions of access to housing for young people. For his part, Carlos Zamora, of Knight Frank, expects that 2019 will bring a more sustained and sustainable growth of transactions and housing prices. "In the big cities there is a concern about the scarcity of land and the role of the Administration, since there are large projects whose approval has been delayed even for years, causing an increase in the cost of the land," he explains.
For Enrique Losantos, CEO of JLL in Spain, his greatest desire "is to avoid factors outside the market, both fiscal and economic and geopolitical alter the good health of the market, as this could greatly harm the future of the industry." Regarding the mortgage market, Santos González, of the AHE, expects the legal security to recover, which has been lost with the mess of the mortgages in the Supreme Court. "The mortgage loan in judicial terms is subject to tremendous pressure, the legal issue of contracts is in question and in any business legal uncertainty is devastating, especially if it is 30 years." Also César Hernández (Appraisal Society) calls in general "clear and stable rules that provide legal security to the sector." And Fernando Encinar (Idealist) appeals to politicians, and wants "to legislate and regulate not watching Twitter, but data and proven experiences." And what would the Kings ask the representatives of the parties? Beatriz Corredor (PSOE) wants 2019 to be the year "when families see that housing becomes accessible." And in this case there is a quorum with the opposition, because Ana Zurita (PP) wishes "to lower the number of housing applicants." Miguel Caraulet (Citizens) demands "that the Government begin to comply with the development of Article 47 of the Constitution." Pilar Garrido (Podemos) would like to "live in a country where access and enjoyment of housing is a real right, not a piece of paper."