They develop a model that predicts the sites in Spain with the highest risk of coronavirus



The tool wants to "anticipate the spread" of Covid-19 in order to adopt effective control measures

Researchers at the Rovira i Virgili University (URV) and the University of Zaragoza have developed a mathematical model that allows predictions of the risk of new cases of infection by the outbreak of coronavirus in different parts of Spain according to the mobility of citizens.

The Catalan university has informed this Friday in a statement that with the new tool they want “Anticipate the spread” of Covid-19 in order to adopt effective control measures.

The model takes into account the contagions that asymptomatic people can do, which has been "one of the main obstacles to control the spread of the disease."

The research group works on the development of mathematical models that study the spread of epidemics based on the mobility patterns of people and the census of affected populations.

The Alephsys Lab researcher at the URV Alex Arenas has detailed that they have adapted one of these models to the particularities of Covid-19, have included the epidemiological data obtained so far and also the influence of those asymptomatic individuals that can cause new infections.

Through the usual mobility data between Spanish municipalities of the country's active population provided by the National Statistics Institute (INE), they have developed this tool that shows the estimated epidemic risk for Spain at the municipal level.

Sands has confirmed that the model “You can move perfectly to other countries” provided they have this data. Ep

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