Year 2018 it was probably the fourth warmest year on Earth since 1850. The global average temperature was colder than in 2015, 2016 and 2017, but warmer than any year observed before 2015.
It is the main conclusion of the analysis of Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit research organization based in California, which tracks changes in global average temperature since 2013.
Thus, 2016 is still the warmest year in the period of historical observations. The slight decline in 2018 is likely to reflect short-term natural variability, but the overall pattern remains consistent with a long-term trend towards global warming, according to a statement from this entity.
In his estimate, temperatures in 2018 were about 1.16 ° C above the average temperature of the late nineteenth century, from 1850-1900, a period that is often used as a pre-industrial baseline for global temperature goals.
In the analysis conducted by Berkeley Earth, the uncertainty about the average temperature of recent years is about 0.05 ° C. Because 2018 was colder than 2015 by only 0.04 ° C, the ranking of the third year more Warm compared to the warmer room can reasonably be considered ambiguous.
Although 2018 only occupies the fourth place in the general classification, from 2015 to 2018 it still stands out as a period of significant warmth well above all previous years since 1850. This reflects the long-term trend towards global warming. Although 2018 is a bit colder than the years immediately before, its temperature remains consistent with the long-term warming trend.
In addition to long-term warming, individual years are also affected by interannual variations in climate. Both 2015 and 2016 were subjected to more heat by an extreme El Niño event that peaked in November / December 2015 and was reported by NOAA as essentially linked to the strongest El Niño ever observed.
On the contrary, 2018 began with an event of The girl weak to moderate. It would be expected that such conditions would have somewhat reduced the global average temperature in 2018. Internal variability, such as El Niño and La Niña, generates year-to-year variations in temperature that occur in addition to the long-term warming trend.
As can be expected from global warming caused by greenhouse gases, the increase in temperature throughout the world is widely distributed, affecting almost all terrestrial and oceanic areas. In 2018, 85% of the Earth's surface was significantly warmer than the average temperature during 1951-1980, 13% had a similar temperature and only 2.4% was significantly cooler.
New heat record in Europe and the Middle East
Berkeley Earth estimates that 4.3% of the surface of the Earth sets a new local record for the warmest annual average. More significantly in 2018, this included large portions of Europe and the Middle East.
The heat wave that hit Europe in 2018 included, by far, the warmest average from May to October that has been observed since the registration began. This long period of unusual summer heat had a significant impact on the region and was accompanied in many areas by a significant drought.
Forecast for 2019
Based on historical variability and current conditions, the analysis believes that it is possible to estimate approximately what global average temperature should be expected in 2019.
"Our current estimate is that 2019 is likely to be warmer than 2018, but it is unlikely to be warmer than the current record year, 2016. Currently, it seems that there is approximately a 50% chance that 2019 will become the second warmest year since 1850, "he predicts.