The WHO makes forecasts for Europe for the first time and they are not very good

The impact of the pandemic, two years after it was declared worldwide, is still not "fully visible" or measurable, but the WHO maintains that it will "reverse" achievements already achieved and puts more weight on the difficulties that already exist in reaching the Sustainable Development Goals in 2030. It is one of the ideas that emerges from the new report on the state of health of the European region, made up of 51 countries, published every three years. The last one is from 2018.

The study is crossed by the coronavirus crisis and it shows how it has hit all European health systems. The scheme has been repeated, with different intensity in all countries: cancellation of surgeries and treatments, lack of availability of beds due to the avalanche of serious cases, suspension of consultations... In 2020, 40% of basic health services were interrupted. health in Europe and even in the first months of 2021 the percentage reached 29%, says the report, which also highlights the wide inequalities between countries and the risk that waiting lists, far from normalizing, continue to grow. 102 million people were infected between January 24, 2020 and December 31, 2021 and 1.7 million died from the virus.

The extensive x-ray of key health and sanitation issues includes for the first time projections for 2030 that, in some matters, are not very encouraging. The forecasts were commissioned from the University of Washington School of Medicine and are divided into three scenarios: the baseline or expected, the best if policies are accelerated, and the worst if they are slowed down. The aspects that are measured have to do with indicators of the 2030 Agenda.

Little progress is expected, for example, in reducing alcohol consumption. Of the 10 countries with the most consumption in the world, nine belong to the European region, although between the territories there are overwhelming differences (from 0.9 liters of alcohol consumed in Tajikistan to 14.3 in the Czech Republic, according to data from 2019). The drop in intake is very slow: from 2015 to 2019 it was reduced by an average of 0.3 litres. And it doesn't happen much less in all countries. In Spain, for example, consumption increased in this period.

The report confirms, yes, that the pandemic has pushed consumption down fundamentally due to changes in social behavior, but warns that it could rebound. The most pessimistic forecasts point to a return to the intake levels of 2008. The problems in moving forward are largely due to resistance from the industry. The WHO recalls that alcohol is responsible for 10% of deaths in the European region and that is why they are preventable deaths.

The HIV/AIDS pandemic is not letting up in Europe either. The forecast for 2030, in the most possible or reference scenario, is that the incidence remains at the same levels as in 2010. Not even in the best scenario would it reach the 2030 objectives, says the report. There are only two WHO regions where infections are growing: one is Europe. Between 2015 and 2019, infections have grown by 6% per 1,000 inhabitants. The WHO warns that the coronavirus crisis has slowed down the process towards the elimination of the HIV/AIDS pandemic with a 50% reduction in tests during confinements and, therefore, the drop in diagnoses and the start of antiretroviral treatments.

These drugs should reach 95% of infected people in 2030 according to the objectives set by UNAIDS, but on average only 64% take them, according to the report, with enormous inequalities depending on the country (coverage ranges from 47% to 91 %). In general, the situations are very different depending on the territory, starting with the diagnosis (from 0 to 54.9 people per 100,000 inhabitants): the highest incidence is in the east, followed by the west and, finally, the center, analyzes the WHO.

The projections on violence against women are not good either. Although a rebound is not predicted, the forecast confirms that the fight to eradicate sexist violence is a long, complex process full of resistance. In the best scenario, the number of women who suffer violence from their partners or ex-partners (the WHO only refers to these circumstances) would decrease by 5%. At worst, it would increase by 3%.

The 2022 report leaves room for some good news. All countries in the WHO European region have achieved the goal of reducing maternal mortality to less than 70 deaths per 100,000 births in 2030. The average is 13.

In addition, the mortality levels of newborn babies and children are in line with the Sustainable Development Goals: the threshold is 12 and 35 deaths per 1,000 births and the average in this WHO region is 4 and 8 , respectively. Progress has also been made in premature mortality from so-called "non-infectious diseases", such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer or diabetes, although alcohol and tobacco consumption remain high. 26% of the population in Europe smokes compared to the global average of 23.6%. Obesity also remains a pressing problem in the European region: nearly one in three children is overweight.