The toll on the economy
A somewhat longer denouement and greater economic sanctions make the cost of the war somewhat higher for the economy than the quicker (and ignominious) exit that was proposed ten days ago would have entailed.
In any case, it should not be a much higher price if, as everything indicates, the outcome is in the next few days. In fact, we are at a point where the result is practically binary. Either in a few days a peace agreement is negotiated -Minsk 2- that removes Ukraine from the news or Putin throws it down the middle street. And although this last option seems to have a high level of probability,
while it benefits no one (least of all Russia), it remains the least likely scenario.
The toll that the world economy is going to pay for a longer period with high energy prices is somewhat less growth - the big international houses put it at around one percentage point for Europe - and higher prices for longer. Nothing that breaks with the dynamics of recent times. The central banks will continue to have an alibi in the short term so as not to make a move, but what they don't do now they will have to do later.
This being the case, it does not seem like a very high price to pay for the important step forward that the West, and specifically Europe, has taken. In the coming days the markets will continue to move to the beat of the headlines of the war, but at the moment that the idea of an agreement that dispels the doubts about apocalyptic outcomes begins to take shape, they will have to put a price on a situation that is not going to be very different from the one we came from.
political change
One of the unintended consequences of the war in Ukraine is that it is putting things in their place politically. The extremes are being portrayed for what they are and the moderate options are taking their place back.
A very good example is the evolution of the polls for the presidential elections in France. The extremist parties are losing steam in the face of a Macron who, with Scholz's permission, is going to emerge greatly strengthened as a European leader.
More important is Germany's 180-degree turn. Your chancellor's speech a few days ago is already part of the European heritage and will be studied in textbooks. Not only do they reconcile with history but they lead - with the Greens as part of the government coalition - the return to a more pragmatic approach to politics, turning the page on the great misunderstanding that has dominated the discourse in recent years.
In the Spanish case, the populists have portrayed themselves leaving their miseries in the air and the Government has ended up doing what it has to do. If we add to the above the change of leadership in the Popular Party, it seems that the foundations are being laid for a shift to the center by the traditional parties that should serve to reduce the noise that has been what has dominated the scene for too long . We are already seeing all this and it should be more evident in the near future.
war party
In the few days that we have been at war, the perception of what the conflict could be has changed a lot. The good hand that, at first, it seemed that the Russian president could take is not translating into results. In fact, none of his initial goals have been achieved. From the possibility of sitting down at the elders' table again, he has become an international outcast. His main and most important partner (China) is suspicious and shows signs that he is not comfortable with how events are unfolding. The high prices of raw materials and lower economic growth in its main trading partners were not on its roadmap.
The hitherto weak West has responded with unusual strength and speed, giving an unexpected rudder change that modifies the international chessboard. A more long-term vision has been imposed in the face of the somewhat egotistical short-termism with which the shocks have been handled in recent years, which allows it not to end falsely. The European Union has once again taken advantage of a crisis.
And in Russia, although there is a lot of disinformation and it is difficult to push the mood, the addition of a longer conflict with a sister nation and the effects of economic sanctions should make a dent in support for the president. A few days ago the possibility that this conflict would end with the departure of Putin was not contemplated and today it is in the equation
Indecipherable. It is not predictable where the Russian can come out at this point, but her next moves are what will determine the outcome of the war. Everything seems to indicate that a quick solution benefits everyone. The stories are then edited for home consumption. We shouldn't take long to see it.
