The Tax Authority does not contemplate that Spain will enter a recession and indicates that this year it will have "significant" growth

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef) does not contemplate that Spain will enter this year in recession. The president of the public accounts supervisory body, Cristina Herrero, has defended this Wednesday that this scenario, which has been agitated in recent days by sectors of the opposition to the Government, is not contemplated in the forecasts. “We do not contemplate a recession”, she has underlined on several occasions during her participation in a morning breakfast organized by New Economy

Herrero has pointed out that "the year 2022 is still going to have significant growth". On the 19th, Airef is going to update its growth, debt and deficit forecasts for the Spanish economy, in which some downward adjustment may be included due to the impact of inflation, greater than expected in May, when it endorsed the projections government macroeconomics. However, he considers that there are still factors that drive the economy towards growth. "Although the criticism we make of the implementation of the recovery planhas a transformative capacity and will contribute something this year”, Herrero pointed out.

The president of Airef has not alluded to the impact for next year. Herrero points out that a "key" factor will be to verify what happens in winter with the gas supply in Europe. She has pointed out that this energy crisis would affect other EU countries, but that they are the "main partners" for the Spanish economy. "Not at this time, not for our country, but there is concern about what may happen in the winter regarding the evolution of the euro zone," acknowledged the president of the independent body.

This supply is what has raised concerns in the economic projections of some organizations. The vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Luis de Guindos, stated this Wednesday that the cut of Russian gas to Germany could lead the German country to a recession and this, in turn, could "drag" the whole of the eurozone .

In statements to the Cope chain, Guindos has stressed, however, that the ECB does not manage in its central scenario the entry of the European economy into a recession (several quarters of negative growth), although it does a "significant economic slowdown" that, combined with high inflation, anticipates a "very complex" scenario for the coming months. “The coming months are going to be very complex for the European and world economy due to the coexistence of high inflation with clear signs of economic slowdown, which are already here. We have already begun to see that the consumption of families in Europe is suffering and to this we must add the uncertainty of the war, which is stopping many investment projects”, he indicated.

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