Not even in the best forecasts, the PP and Vox would reach an absolute majority in Castilla y León. According to the pre-election barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), the most optimistic estimate for both formations would leave them one seat away from having enough votes to govern without needing more support. The PSOE would win the elections with a percentage point more than the PP.
This Wednesday's barometer predicts that the PP will obtain between 27 and 32 seats, compared to the 29 it has right now, with 29.8% of the vote. For the extreme right-wing party, the CIS estimates that it would obtain between four and eight, with 6% of the vote. Vox would thus obtain a much better result than the one it has right now, with only one seat, but it would not be enough. In the high range of both brackets, the two parties add 40 deputies, one of the absolute majority.
The PP would also not have the option of joining with its current partner, Ciudadanos, with whom Alfonso Fernández Mañueco broke the government agreement to call early elections. The candidacy led by Francisco Igea would obtain between two and five seats, far from the 12 seats it had until now, and would obtain 7.9%.
For its part, the CIS predicts that the PSOE would win the elections with 30.8% of the vote, but will lose some seats with this electoral repetition. The barometer estimates that they would obtain between 25 and 34, which in the best of cases would leave them with one seat less than the current ones, but seven of the absolute majority, which they could only reach with a pact.
On the other hand, United We Can would see its representation in the courts increase after the elections. The party currently has two seats, and the CIS estimates that they could have up to five, or keep a minimum of three.
From there, three more candidates would obtain representation. Unión del Pueblo Leonés, which now has one seat, could get up to two or three. For Ávila, which also has one, the same representation would remain, and Soria Ya's candidacy would enter with between two and three seats in the courts.
The rest of the candidates would be left out: España Emptied, Vía Burgalesa or Zamora Decide would not obtain representation.