We observe with some surprise that despite the pull that the campaigns have had on Christmas before Christmas, unemployment figures for the month of November have been much worse than expected.
Undoubtedly, the most important and at the same time most negative data, has been the fall of 47,449 Social Security affiliates, falling back to 18,945,624 affiliates, a figure for the month of November that practically multiplied by four the fall of 2017.
Although the number of unemployed people has improved, reducing by 1,836 people, we have to analyze how despite Black Friday and economic growth we have obtained this data in the month before Christmas.
One of the main challenges of our economy and therefore of employment is knowing, when we will be able to reach the levels of 2007. On the verge of completing five years of consecutive economic growth after the worst crisis of the last decades, we have the third highest level of unemployment in the OECD and the second highest in the euro zone, behind Greece.
We must look at the year 2019 with caution, the high rates of unemployment that we suffer in Spain are not only the result of the crisis. Structurally or persistently over time, Spain systematically has a higher level of unemployment than its European partners. At the time of the maximum growth of the economy in 2007 (second quarter), unemployment reached its lowest level with 7.9%. Given the above, and taking into account the deterioration suffered by the productive fabric of Spain with the crisis of recent years, we can consider that the level of structural unemployment is around 10% and the maximum active population, without massive immigration is difficult to exceed the 20 million.
As these are necessary objectives, it is convenient to review what is the current situation of our labor market, beyond the figures, what are the causes and consequences of their main movements and what can we expect in the next two years, which could continue to be important economic
Undoubtedly, the last five years have been very positive for the economy and employment, at least in numbers since we have been increasing the pace of job creation every year to reach an average of 500,000 jobs per year. Thus, in half a decade, Spain has returned to the head in the creation of employment in Europe with more than two and a half million Social Security affiliates.
However, if we look at other quantitative indicators (the calculation of total hours worked, overtime, salaries, among others) and qualitative indicators, we see that the Spanish labor market has undergone a profound transformation that in many layers of the active population does not has experienced a real improvement, but has reinforced another of the endemic problems in our market, which is the duality between fixed and temporary contracts, gaining ground every year temporary contracts versus indefinite.
In general terms we are creating a more unstable job and that it does not give workers the possibility of making long-term plans, we are moving towards a system in which the worker is hired for a specific project with a beginning and an end, and in In general, professionals enter into hiring modalities where they do not pay for their time, but for their effective work.
To this phenomenon, it is contributing that there are sectors such as banking and the electricity sector, which have traditionally created a stable and well-paid job, are destroying employment month after month. This is not a coincidence, because they are examples of the need to adjust both the work forces and salaries to the new productive environment that has produced the digitalization and technology.
On the other hand, wages have begun to increase more slowly and later than the recovery of employment. The increase is concentrated especially in multinationals and large companies, but remains stagnant or even falls in the rest of the economy. For example, in the last ten years the salary of young people has fallen by 15% according to data from the National Institute of Statistics.
In the absence of significant improvements in productivity, wages are unlikely to increase with greater intensity, given that in the medium and long term wages can not be increased permanently by decree (as has happened this time), but rather through a sustained improvement in wages. the productivity time per job.