The stock market goes back timidly, the euro stagnates and crude oil advances

The stock market goes back timidly, the euro stagnates and crude oil advances

The Ibex recovers 8,000 points after losing 2.5% this Tuesday, the community currency remains at its lowest against the dollar and oil rises to 104 dollars per barrel

Jose Maria Waiter

The Spanish stock market is recovering and, as usually happens after a significant decline, it dawns this Wednesday with a rebound that, although it puts it back above 8,000 points, barely advances 0.9%, much less than two and a half points that came to be left this Tuesday in the midst of the avalanche of data that anticipate a period of economic slowdown due to the effect of inflation.

This session will be marked by new macro data and the minutes of the US Federal Reserve. The main European markets also woke up positive this Wednesday, with advances of 1.5% in London and Paris and 1.1% in Frankfurt .

Within the Ibex 35, almost all the values ​​registered rises in the first bars of the session. The biggest rises were recorded by IAG (+3.9%), Inditex (+2.7%), Meliá (+2.2%), Aena and ArcelorMittal (+1.9%) and Amadeus, BBVA and Santander, with increases of 1.6% in the three cases. Among the decreases, Colonial stood out, which yielded 2.1% at the opening.

On the other hand, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, is now trading at 104.60 dollars, with an increase of almost 1.8%, while the Texas stood at 100.89 dollars, with an increase of 1.4%.

In the currency market, the euro lost positions against the dollar and traded at 1.0260 'greenbacks'. The exchange rate of the euro against the dollar fell yesterday to its lowest level since December 2002 due to the growing risks of recession in the eurozone and the less aggressiveness of the European Central Bank (ECB) in normalizing its monetary policy. And in the debt market, the Spanish risk premium was around 111 basis points, with the interest required on the ten-year bond at 2.314%.

fear of recession

This Monday, the recession drums were once again beating strongly in the market and the Ibex-35 ended the session with a 2.5% drop to 7,959 points. It is its lowest level since March, in full tension after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The collapse was even greater in Italy, Germany and London, where the red numbers were around 3%. And Wall Street also had red numbers at the close of the European markets.

Investors are fleeing risky assets as new benchmarks point to a direct path to economic contraction. Yesterday it was weak PMI data in the euro zone (which fell from 54.8 points in May to 52 in June) that took the single currency to a 20-year low against the dollar. This indicator, due to its advanced nature, is especially followed by investors. And it is getting closer to the 50-point limit that marks the separation between economic contraction and expansion. This Wednesday the summer economic forecasts of the European Commission will be known.

The prospect of a drop in demand in the face of a possible recession has also put pressure on oil prices. This Tuesday they fell 9% in the futures market to three-month lows, with a barrel of Brent, a reference in Europe, trading at 103 dollars. For its part, the American West Texas lost even the barrier of 100 dollars in the most tense moments of the session. “Investors must be prepared for the risk of more substantial losses,” warns the fund manager AXA Investment Managers.

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