The Ibex has been clearly at the tail of the European Stock Exchanges in 2019. In the face of the returns above 20% achieved by the Eurostoxx or the Cac, which this year have managed to rub shoulders with the increases in Wall Street, the rise of the Ibex remains reduced to 13.59% this year.
The mediocre behavior of the banks, with a decisive weight in the index and an uneven evolution in the year, and the political uncertainty of a year in which two general elections have been held and that ends without government formation have ended up taking their toll to the selective Spanish.
There is, however, a group of values with brilliant revaluations that have pulled the car and confirm the attractiveness that, beyond the punished banking sector, Spanish companies offer.
Cellnex stands out with its own light and is the best value of the Ibex in 2019 by far, having almost doubled its value on the stock market. It is followed by Ferrovial and Siemens Gamesa, with respective increases in 2019 of 53% and 48%.
The Ibex is at the tail of Europe and rises in the year 13.59%, half of its neighbors
And then Inditex appears, the value that has contributed the most to the Ibex upturn in 2019 thanks to its selective weight, only surpassed by that of Santander. The textile leader scores a rise in the year of 45% and clears once again the doubts about his ability to continue growing at a sustained pace.
The 33% increase in Iberdrola, the third value of the Ibex by market capitalization, has been almost as decisive as that of Inditex for the positive tone of the Spanish selective.
On the contrary, the evolution of Telefónica has been the biggest burden, since the value falls by 12% in the year – the third largest loss of the index – and is the one with the most points remaining in the selective with its decrease.
The bank continues to skew the evolution of the index with its stock market progress, although with its loss of capitalization, its weight in the Ibex has been gradually reduced. BBVA stands out with an increase of 8.7%, Santander falls 5.5% and CaixaBank and Bankia lose 10.8% and 26.3%, respectively.
The constant purchases and the two capital increases this year have had the best rewards. Cellnex has been up 98.7% in the year, the largest of the Ibex, and after having left behind even its historical maximum of 41.28 euros, marked in October. The company has increased capital by 3.7 billion euros this year and in the second expansion, by 2.5 billion in October, demand exceeded supply 38 times. This month it has bought 1,500 telecommunications towers from Orange and until September has announced operations in Italy, France, Switzerland, Ireland and the United Kingdom with a cumulative investment of 6,800 million with which it strengthens its leadership in Europe.
The year of the confirmation of the strategic focus on infrastructures and the change in day-to-day management – with the relief of Íñigo Meirás by Ignacio Madridejos – the second biggest increase of the Ibex, of 53.4%, is settled. The market has rewarded the decision to dispense with the service area – still for sale and possible source of an extraordinary dividend -, despite having incurred losses for the provisions of 345 million euros in concessions in the US and the judicial battle that maintains by the control of the Canadian highway 407 ETR, the jewel in the crown and which has ceased to be the largest shareholder. The uncertainty of Brexit is also shaken and the year ends almost at record highs.
The erratic behavior of Siemens Gamesa has not prevented the value from registering a rise in the year of 47.7%, the third largest in the Ibex. The price has suffered abrupt landslides this year with the presentation of results, in which the expectations were often not met. But as the commercial tension has been reduced, the value has taken flight. Even more since Siemens’ interest in buying 8% of the capital held by Iberdrola is known, which would settle the bitter dispute between the two main shareholders of the company and that has ended up in court. The action traces more than 36% since October although it fails to reconquer the
Add and continue. Inditex has once again cleared up doubts about the continuity and strength of its growth following the presentation of third quarter results, on December 11. Group sales have accelerated to the record and for the first time remain at the edge of 20,000 million euros in the first three quarters of a year, of which 70% correspond to Zara. The results provoked a wave of valuation improvements by analysts and have brought the value to annual highs in the final stretch of 2019, exceeding 32 euros per title. The group accumulates an increase in the year of 45% and revalidates its leadership by capitalization in the Ibex, with 100,200 million euros.
This year the market has rewarded Colonial’s commitment to the prime office business in Madrid, Barcelona and Paris. Proof of this strategic decision was the sale this summer of its logistics division to the US Prologis for 425 million euros, some very valuable resources with which to advance in the reduction of its debt and in its investment plan. Colonial’s action advanced almost without pause until reaching annual highs in November, when its trajectory was distorted. The announcement of the government coalition between PSOE and United We can open a focus of uncertainty for the socimis, given the declared intention of Pablo Iglesias to modify the favorable taxation they enjoy.
The rise of almost 40% this year on the stock market has brought Grifols to its all-time highs. The world leader in blood products has achieved two major milestones this year, the refinancing of its debt – with which it has managed to reduce the cost of a liability of 5.800 million euros – and the authorization for one of its most demanding plans, its expansion to China. In November, the company was approved by the competition authorities in the United States and China for its entry into the capital of its Chinese rival Shanghai RAAS, announced in March. The favor of the investors included obviated that, in September Grifols earned less than a year ago.
Spanish power companies have undoubtedly benefited from the search for defensive values that has marked the great part of the year, to the point of marking a record high at the end of September at 9,322 euros. The value corrects slightly since then but without losing third place due to capitalization of the Ibex at the end of the year, which was done after its stock market momentum during a difficult 2018.
Iberdrola has recovered from the threat to the cut in the remuneration of the distribution of electricity and gas of the CNMC, which turned out to be less, and has confirmed its commitment to shareholder remuneration with a rise in the 2019 dividend of 10, 6%, even in the scrip dividend formula.
Although 2019 will close four euros below its maximum for the year marked in June, Aena will say goodbye to a good year in which its shares are revalued by 29%. This spectacular rise, recovering more than what he lost in 2018 when it fell by 13%, does not detract from the value that continues to be supported by analysts. Bankinter says that Aena presents a “great attraction in an environment of low rates that we expect to extend at least until mid-2020, due to a defensive profile with high visibility of cash flows and comfortable financial situation.” In addition, the company offers an attractive dividend yield of more than 4%.