Little by little, the march of the Spanish economy is showing symptoms of exhaustion. Since the end of 2015, when the year-on-year change in GDP exceeded 4%, growth rates have been progressively decreasing until now. 2.4% of the third quarter -data published on Friday by the INE, that reduces by a tenth the estimate made a month ago– it is the lowest figure of the last four years. However, Spain can still boast of growing more than the average of European countries in its environment: eight tenths more compared to the euro area, and six compared to the entire EU.
The INE has published on Friday the guts of the growth advance it gave at the end of October. In addition to reducing the year-on-year increase from 2.5% to 2.4% between July and September, it maintains a quarterly growth of 0.6%, a rate equal to that registered in the second quarter.
The worst data of the autumnal season are explained for a lower contribution of national demand. This has gone from contributing 3.1 points to growth in the second quarter to 2.8, three tenths less. The opposite occurs with the foreign demand, which subtracts four tenths of growth to GDP, but it does so to a lesser extent than between April and June.
Another bad news for the Spanish economy is that labor productivity decreased between July and September, as employment grew more – 2.5%, an increase of 450,000 jobs – than the economy. Labor costs also continued with the upward trend, with an increase in the unit labor cost of 1.2% year-on-year.
In a note published on Friday, the Chamber of Commerce lists the difficulties that the international situation is going through – the slowdown of the economy, protectionist escalation, tightening of monetary policy … – and those of Spain – territorial problems, political and foreseeable uncertainty increase in the fiscal pressure- to justify its lower growth forecasts than in previous years: 2.5% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019.