The forecasts of the companies of the real estate sector for 2019 agree in predicting that the expansive cycle of the residential market will continue, both in transactions and in prices, although surely with more moderate increases than this year, due to the economic slowdown.
"In 2019 the prices of sale and rental in Spain will tend to the mesetización", as summarized by the head of studies of Idealista, Fernando Encinar, who foresees some 510,000 sales, especially if the European Central Bank (ECB) begins to raise rates of interest.
The consultancy CBRE raises the forecast of transactions in 2019 to about 625,000, while the average increase in prices augurs that it is somewhat less than 6 or 7% with which it will close 2018, in a very uneven state average with very different rises by areas geographic.
Servihabitat predicts a similar increase in transactions and estimates that 632,000 will be made in Spain in 2019, with an increase of 4.7% over the 604,000 this year, which has had an increase of 11.9%.
The price of housing will also rise by 4.7%, one point less than this year, according to the forecasts of Servihabitat Trends, the analysis office of the real estate company linked to Caixabank.
The manager Singular House advances that "2019 will be a stable year in which there will be price corrections and in which large inflations are not expected".
"The high prices will touch roof in the big cities, like Madrid or Barcelona", according to Singular House, which, nevertheless, foresees an increase in transactions in less populated municipalities and close to urban centers.
Fotocasa portal believes that "the residential market will continue to grow at a good pace and prices will continue their upward trend, albeit more moderately."
Its director of studies, Beatriz Toribio, believes that it will be a more moderate rise "for two reasons", by macroeconomic forecasts that "point to a weak growth" of the economy, and, secondly, "because the context of financing it will change with an eventual rise in rates and new rules in the market, such as the mortgage law. "
The economic slowdown as a possible slowing factor also alludes Ferran Font, director of studies of Pisos.com, who, however, predicts to Efe that "the good pace of growth" of the housing market will continue next year, even if "in a more sustained way".
Font believes that to know the evolution in 2019 will have to be pending to the effects that produce the recent regulatory changes in the Mortgage Law and the Law of Urban Leases, among others, as well as the impact that always has "a political year" .
This refers to the municipal elections on the last Sunday of May, which will coincide that day with elections to the autonomous parliaments in most of the communities and with the elections to the European Parliament, as well as the possibility of early elections to the Congress and the Senate that could have in the coming months.
Pisos.com analyst recalls that municipal elections are conducive to many announcements in town planning, which can influence the residential market, both in property and rental.
The leases have an average occupation time of 2.3 years, according to Efe, President of Alquiler Seguro, Gustavo Rossi, who estimates that it is difficult to foresee the effects of the regulatory changes on the rental ratio, which CBRE places in 22.3% of all households.
Ramon Riera, president of the association of real estate agents FIABCI Spain, believes that the year will be good for the sector, with a high level of transactions, "as long as the price of money continues" with interest rates close to zero.
Riera adds to Efe that the slight increase in rates expected by the ECB in 2019 will not be an obstacle to the growth of transactions, which will be thrown, once again, by Barcelona and Madrid, which are "the most attractive cities in Europe" for the real estate market.