The PSOE improves in all the islands at the cost of the land that the nationalists give up

The popular go back slightly in Gran Canaria but cut distance in non-capital districts

IO The Gran Canarian palms

The political map of each of the insular constituencies reflects a clear political trend at the regional level. Despite the fact that a large transfer of votes is not observed, a generalized increase in the number of socialists is perceived to the detriment of the center-right in almost all the islands, according to the electoral survey of CANARIAS 7, carried out by Socioanalysis Technicians (TSA). .

Ángel Víctor Torres' party has a large electorate in the capital's islands, where it has almost 261,000 votes. His leadership in the pacts of the island councils has been one of the reasons why he has been consolidating as the greatest political force in almost the entire archipelago, except in La Gomera.

On this island, the Socialists would hold the last of the four seats in the constituency, behind ASG's three. The same scenario that was drawn during the last elections.

All in all, the polls point to possibilities for improvement for the PSOE in Gran Canaria, where it could win up to two deputies, in addition to Fuerteventura and El Hierro, with one more per island.

The Canary Coalition (CC), on the other hand, could regress a deputy in all the islands where it has a presence and, in the case of Gran Canaria, it could even disappear, going from its two current deputies to one or none. The exception to the rule would be El Hierro, which despite a slight drop of 3.7 percentage points, with more than 2,000 votes, is placed as the second force and could win a second deputy for the constituency with respect to the previous elections.

In the capital islands, which have 15 eligible deputies each, the distribution of votes marks some differences. While in Gran Canaria NC could gain ground as the second force and win up to 4, in Tenerife it would make its way on the lists with a deputy in the face of its null presence on the island during the current legislature.

On the other hand, if in Gran Canaria the PP loses strength with almost two points that could reduce from three to two seats, in Tenerife they increase half a point but a similar result would be maintained, with its two deputies. In fact, one of the reasons why the organization in the Canary Islands bet on Manuel Domínguez at the head of the popular, with Poli Suárez as second in command, was to overcome the lawsuit and gain presence on this island.

In the rest of the archipelago, on the other hand, they could obtain better results: the PP in Lanzarote advances and obtains two deputies, one more than in the past elections; in Fuerteventura it maintains one seat and in La Palma it would add another, up to three. On the other hand, in El Hierro, its only deputy could disappear if the PSOE or the CC gain ground on the island.

With regard to the loss of confidence of Podemos voters, they are mainly concentrated in Lanzarote, the only island where the sum of the PP seat would unseat the purples, who would only have a presence in Gran Canaria (1) and Tenerife (1) .

It would be in both constituencies where Vox could break into the political scene of the archipelago for the first time. In absolute terms, it has around 44,434 voters throughout the Canary Islands, of which 38,700 are concentrated in the capitals. Percentage-wise, the formation would manage to overcome the regional barrier with 4.8%, but it will be the count of the first forces –through the well-known D'Hont system– what determines its entry into Parliament.

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