June 21, 2021

The PSOE goes back and the PP continues to rise at the expense of Vox, according to the CIS


CIS January 2021

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)


The PSOE has managed to reverse the downward trend that accumulated in recent months and stands at a 30.7 vote estimate, a rise of 1.2 points, according to the barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) for the month of January . The Socialists thus manage to stop the fall and maintain their distance with the PP, which also rises compared to December. Vox, which had reached 14% in voting intention, lost one point.

The study shows that Unidos Podemos remains stable at 10.7, just one tenth less than in December. Ciudadanos, for their part, once again dropped 1.2 points in this barometer and fell below the 10% barrier that it had reached a month ago. Inés Arrimadas’ party confirms its trend in recent studies: every time it exceeds that figure, it falls back on the next barometer.

The study of the center directed by José Félix Tezanos was carried out between January 7 and 25. According to the data collected in the barometer, the Socialists trace a downward trend that had been consolidated for months. The PSOE went from a vote estimate of 32.1 in July to 29.5 in December, a fall that in any case always placed them above their electoral results (28%). Now, the barometer for January places them at 30.7%.

This result allows the PSOE to keep its distance from the PP, who despite having fallen to 18.1% in September in vote estimation, had managed to recover little by little and had approached almost 10 points of difference, after from having been at 13. Pablo Casado’s men continue their gradual rise in the barometers, although for now they are unable to recover the 20.8% of votes they obtained in the November 2019 elections. They are now at 19.2% , six tenths more than a month ago.

The rise in the PP is produced in part by the fall of Vox. The far-right party came from months of promotions in each new installment of the CIS: from July 11.6 to the 14% estimated by the December barometer. That progression placed those of Santiago Abascal with the option of recovering 15.1% of the votes that obtained the 10N, but the January study has cut that rise in the bud: it gives them an estimate of 13%, one point less than it does. one month.



The one who experiences the least changes is United We Can: it goes from 10.8 to 10.7% in vote estimate compared to December. The problem for Pablo Iglesias’ party is that it cannot reverse the fall in which it has been plunged for months in the CIS barometers. The party reached 12.2% in December, only seven tenths below its electoral result, but since then it has not stopped falling. Far was his fight with Vox for third place, and his consolation is that for now Ciudadanos does not threaten to take away the fourth.

Inés Arrimadas’s party falls back into the CIS, in a game of ups and downs that has been going on for almost a year. The party had managed to return to 10.5% in voting intention, a figure it reached in September but lost in subsequent barometers. Now, they have fallen 1.2 points to 9.3%. They continue, yes, well above the 6.8% with which Albert Rivera left the party after the November 2019 elections.

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