The PSOE closes the year with a seven-point advantage over the PP, according to the CIS

CIS December 2021

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)

Two years after the 10N elections, both PSOE and PP return to the starting box. The Barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) for December places them both in the same results as in the general ones, after a year in which the PP managed to place only three and a half points. That distance is now widening to 7.2 points.

The barometer, the last of the year, leaves the formation of Pedro Sánchez at a midpoint: neither the peak of 31.5% of vote estimate that it reached in April, nor the floor of 27.4% to which it collapsed in June, the month in which the pardons were processed for the procés leaders. In the middle of the legislature, the PSOE is again at 28%, the exact figure it obtained in the 2019 elections. This figure represents a slight increase of four tenths compared to November, but is far from its September results ( 29.6%) and October (28.5%).

The PP also returns to the 10N results, in which it got 20.8% of the votes, after dropping one tenth of the last barometer. Pablo Casado's party fell to its minimum in March (17.9%), and obtained its best forecast in June (23.9%). The distance between the two great parties then fell to its minimum, with only 3.5 points between them; at the end of the year it had been increased to 7.2.

Vox, for its part, continues on the rise it experienced last month, when it shot more than one point. The December barometer adds three tenths more to it and places it in a vote estimate of 14.6%, still below the 15.1% obtained by the 10N. Although it is below its electoral results, the far-right party has risen from the 13% that the CIS gave it in June, its worst figure of the year. It also moves away from United We Can in the battle for third place.

Despite the fact that this distance is extended to almost a point due to the rise in Vox, United We can end the year with good news at the CIS. The barometer places them at 13.7%, their best figure for the whole year and far from the 9.6% to which they plummeted in March. Since July, the party has added in each new delivery of the CIS and if the elections were held today they would get eight tenths more than in 2019.

December 2021 CIS compared to 10N

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)