The hangover from the Andalusian elections, in which Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla won an absolute majority, achieving his goal of governing alone, has led Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party to its best electoral data. The PP has risen more than six points in just one month and leaves two big losers along the way: the PSOE, which moves away from the possibility of revalidating the leadership in the polls, and Vox, which sinks to one of its worst data in recent years.
That is the still photo left by the Simple Logic poll for elDiario.es at the close of the political course. The survey returns the PP to the upward path it had interrupted in June. Since the party began to improve its data after the internal crisis that ended with the departure of Pablo Casado, it has gained almost 12 points in estimated votes.
If the elections were repeated tomorrow, the PP would obtain 33% of the votes. One of every three ballots would be for the candidacy of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. It is the best data of the popular since the general elections of 2019, when Casado kept 21.2% of the votes, and represents a rise of 6.2 points compared to June, when the party suffered a slight setback.
Until then, Feijóo's new PP had managed to chain several months of promotions to which he is now returning with force, and which allows him to distance himself from the PSOE.
The Socialists remain almost as they were. Pedro Sánchez's party only manages to recover one tenth and, if elections were held again now, they would obtain 25.3% of the votes. The Socialists have not been able to recover from the pothole they have been going through since March, when they exceeded 30% of the votes, and for now they are far from their results of November 2019, when they reached 28%.
With these data, the distance in favor of the PP shoots up to 7.7 points while until now it had not exceeded two. The PP now enjoys a wide cushion against the PSOE, which has the only consolation that the poll was carried out just before the debate on the state of the nation, where Sánchez announced measures such as the free commuting of Cercanías, more scholarships and taxes to electricity companies and banks.
The other big loser of the rise of the PP, which this week also certified the CIS, it's Vox. Santiago Abascal bet everything on Andalusia with the candidacy of Macarena Olona, but he fell far short of his expectations and was unable to be decisive either for the investiture of Juanma Moreno Bonilla or for the legislature that is now beginning. The far-right party could not even improve on its 2019 results.
If general elections were held now, Vox would obtain 14.1% of the vote. In other words, it has fallen five and a half points from just a month ago, after having reached 19.6% in June. It is one of the biggest falls in the series, which places Vox in one of its worst data since 2019, as a result of the transfer of voters to the PP. The result leaves them even below what they obtained in the 2019 general elections.
As for vote fidelity, a section that Vox has dominated for months, the PP now stands as the party that would best retain its voters. It would manage to retain 74%, compared to 65.5% for Vox, which would lose 23.8% of its ballots in favor of Feijóo. PSOE and United We Can remain above 50% vote fidelity and Ciudadanos continues as the formation from which the most voters flee.
In the case of United We Can, the July barometer confirms a gradual rise that allows it to recover the path of 12% of the votes that it has not touched since February. The coalition would obtain that percentage of votes if new elections were held now, which represents an increase of almost one point in a month. The following installments of the poll will reveal whether United We Can is capable of consolidating that trend, which has already gone through on other occasions, but which has never pushed it to the point of fighting to reach 13% of the vote.
Finally, Ciudadanos suffers a new fall that brings it closer to parliamentary annulment. Inés Arrimadas's party, which has just disappeared in the Andalusian elections, would only manage to reach 1.8% of the votes in new elections, compared to 2.3% a month ago. In fact, right now they would be surpassed by Más País, which would obtain 2.3% of the votes.
With the current distribution of votes, the fight between the left and right blocs has been slightly reduced. The rise of the PP has been offset by the fall of Vox, and although the PSOE remains unchanged on the left, both United We Can and More Country rise. Thus, right now the block on the right has an advantage of nine percentage points over the one on the left, two points less than a month ago.
The leader evaluation classification also leaves good news for the PP. Its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is currently the best valued politician –after rising four points–, above Yolanda Díaz, who has led that table during most of the survey deliveries. Right now they are separated by less than a point of difference. Both Díaz and Sánchez, who is in third place, have suffered a significant drop in the last month; the vice president, from 37.7% to 34.2%; the president, from 33.5% to 30.9%.