June 13, 2021

The PP cuts its distance after 4M and is 4.5 points behind the PSOE, according to the CIS

CIS May 2021

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)

The PSOE experiences its biggest drop since 10N in the last CIS barometer and stands at 27.9% of the votes, a figure very similar to the 28% obtained in 10N. The PP cuts its distance after the victory of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in the Community of Madrid and is placed just 4.5 points behind Pedro Sánchez with 23.4% of the votes. It is the second important rise for Pablo Casado at the expense of Ciudadanos in just two months. Inés Arrimadas’s party continues to collapse with 5.3% of the vote. The increase in the conservatives punishes Vox, which loses almost two points (13.7%) compared to the previous survey, while Unidos Podemos remains at a similar percentage (10.4%).

Despite the Government tries to unlink the defeat of the PSOE in the Community of Madrid and rejects a change of cycle, the 4M takes its toll. The Socialists lose more than three points in just one month. They fall from 31.5% to 27.9%. It is the first time that the CIS has predicted a result similar to what Sánchez achieved in the last generals.

On the contrary, the PP maintains its upward trend. It grows almost three points compared to the last CIS survey, which placed Casado at 20.6%, which was a similar figure to that obtained at the polls in 2019. The PP would maintain the second position, but would obtain a better result with 23.4% of the votes.

The growth of the PP is to the detriment of Citizens and also of Vox. Arrimadas maintains the downward trend predicted by the last public survey [elaborado tras la moción de censura en Murcia que desencadenó en anticipo en la Comunidad de Madrid]. A month ago it dropped three points (6.7%) and now falls to 5.3% after being an extra-parliamentary force in the Madrid Assembly.

Vox, for its part, fell from 15.4% in April to 13.7%. It also represents a worse result than the one Santiago Abascal achieved on November 10, when he broke into Congress as the third force with 52 deputies.

The More Madrid effect: double your result

United We Can not overcome. It loses three tenths compared to the previous month, when it grew to 10.7% from 9.6%, which had been its lowest level in the legislature. That poll already reflected the departure of Pablo Iglesias from the Government.

On the contrary, Más País-Equo-Compromís doubles its result in just one month promoted by Mónica García, who won the second position in the Madrid Assembly surprising to the socialists. The coalition obtains 3.8% of the votes in this barometer compared to 1.9% in the previous one.

The CIS has published the barometer for the month of May, which was drawn up between 4 and 13 after the elections in the Community of Madrid in which the PP won easily and the PSOE was ousted to third position.


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