The population in Santa Cruz will grow seven points more than Las Palmas

The Canary Islands follow the trend that is registered at the national level and will continue to gain population. / cover

Both the AIReF and the INE forecast a long-term migratory growth trend, which will add 12 million people to Spain by 2070

B. Hernandez

B. HERNANDEZ The Gran Canarian palms

Between 2020 and 2035,
Canary Islands will be one of the three autonomous communities that register a
higher population growth According to a demographic projection carried out by the
National Statistics Institute (INE) two years ago.

According to this analysis, the archipelago will win in this time
188,272 inhabitants (8.4%) and it will practically record
2.5 million inhabitants. In these growth rates, it is behind the Balearic Islands (14.9%) and the Community of Madrid (9.1%). On the other hand, Asturias, Castilla-León or Extremadura suffered the most pronounced decrease, around 10%.

The uneven growth between autonomies is reproduced between the provinces. Taking into account the relative growth projected until 2030 by the Institute of Statistics,
Santa Cruz de Tenerife would be the second to gain population (15.7%), only behind the Balearic Islands (21%), while
the palms is placed fourth in this list with a
9.8% growth, almost
seven points less than the other Canarian province.

migrations

In addition, if current trends continue, both the INE and the
Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) considers that the
migratory balance abroad in the next 30 years it will be
positive in all the autonomous communities, although the statistical body estimates that the net migration rates will have a greater short-term trend, which will decrease over time.

For AIReF, the weight of foreign citizens in Spain would increase from
10% to 15% on the total population in that period. In the case of the evolution of the foreign population,
Canarias leads the ranking with quite a difference and would stand at 119% -double the national percentage, which reaches 55%- and reaches 23,240 people. Behind is the Balearic Islands with 104%. In the long term, the trend maintains a constant growth of this migratory balance.

Instead, the data is different when posting the
internal migration. In this case, it is the Balearic Islands, the Community of Madrid and the Valencian Community that are placed in the first positions. Far from the 31.6% of the Mediterranean islands, the Canarian community
The Canary Islands will receive in 2034 4% of the migration that moves between autonomies.

Another of the data provided by this projection carried out by the Institute of Statistics is the
vegetative balancewhich places the Canary Islands in
negative -there are fewer births than deaths-, although with a rate similar to the country's average.

In total, the migratory balance in Spain would reach almost 270,000 people in 2050 according to the INE. For AIReF, on the other hand, this growth would reach 400,000 and the country's population will increase in 30 years between four and 13 million.

Models

While the INE makes a projection of the data with purely demographic variables,
AIReF also considers economic variables and inserts behaviors from other countries, so its results are not always the same.

In this case,
both reflect population growthalthough those of the Institute of Statistics are more moderate -the Spanish population in 2050 will be almost 50 million inhabitants- while the Independent Authority raises it to 55 million.

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