The Pact of the Flowers reinforces its majority, CC loses steam and Vox reaches Parliament

The right-wing bloc would maintain little room for maneuver to govern, even with Casimiro Curbelo

The Pact of Flowers (PSOE, NC, Podemos and ASG) is in good health for the Canarian electorate and its parties could continue to hold power in the regional Parliament after next year's elections, according to the results of a commissioned macro-survey by CANARIAS7 on voting intentions for 2023. The poll places Vox at the gates of Parliament, with options for two seats.

The Socialist Party remains in the poll as the leading force in the regional sphere, with a wide range of improvement. If in the 2019 elections he managed to win 25 deputies, the survey carried out by Socioanalysis Technicians (TSA) foresees an increase of between two and three deputies, thanks to the support of 33.5% of those polled.

Nueva Canarias is also strengthening its position as the fourth political force and could go from occupying its current five seats to six or eight. In general terms, the nationalist formation experienced a rise of 2.4 points in the face of the next elections, bringing together 11.6%.

Outside of this optimistic scenario, Podemos would be placed, which fell 1.7 percentage points in voting intentions. The estimate indicates that the purple formation could get between two and three deputies compared to the current four. The survey was carried out before the Meri Pita march, but it does reflect the effect of the disputes over the seat of Alberto Rodríguez from Tenerife or the march of Pablo Iglesias himself.

According to the survey, the biggest fall -and historical- would be for the Canary Coalition, which for the first time would drop 18 seats in Parliament. Despite this, the survey is carried out in a social, political and economic context that is distant from the electoral moment, which makes this data relative since nationalists traditionally improve in appointments with the polls. With no candidacies yet established, the ignorance of their leaders, the possibility of the appearance of new coalitions, and no scheduled date for the elections, the intention of the voters could change.

All in all, the CANARIAS7 survey shows a drop from the 20 deputies of the CC to 17, in the best of cases, 13 in the worst. A fact that is also reflected in the loss of five points in the percentage of votes. With 17.2%, what is the second political force in the Canary Islands increases its distance with respect to the PSOE and is closer to the popular ones.

In this sense, the PP experiences a slight setback and brings together 15.4% of the votes. A fact that nevertheless maintains some stability considering the fall of the party since 2011. In terms of seats occupied, the right-wing party has opportunities to improve its current 11 deputies to 14.

possible alliances

It is difficult to determine whether the organization's reform process, now headed by Manuel Domínguez, has had an impact on the results or not. Although the Tenerife native assumed the presidency in the Canary Islands at the end of January, the survey was carried out with a short time frame, between the months of February and March.

With respect to the regional list of nine deputies, the trend is the same: PSOE wins a deputy that subtracts CC, and they add up to four and two respectively; the PP could get a second deputy, while Podemos could lose theirs and NC keeps one.

CC's loss of steam would leave the right-wing bloc with little room for maneuver for a possible pact. Nor would Vox contribute much to this block. According to the survey, the formation led by Santiago Abascal would be at the gates of Parliament with up to two deputies after managing to overcome the 4% barrier. Both seats would come from the constituencies of the capital islands: Gran Canaria and Tenerife. Counting on the extreme right, which would join the bloc of nationalists and popular, they would get 33 seats in the best of cases and, in the worst, 26.

The key would once again be, as happened in the previous elections, the turnaround of ASG. The estimate would give Casimiro Curbelo's group the same three current deputies, maintaining its small but decisive plot of 0.7% of the votes. Hard were then the negotiations to establish alliances, since the also president of the Gomeran Cabildo was not loyal to any side, assuring that "the important thing is not the parties but the policies." These declarations should also be placed in the context of the agenda that Curbelo sets for 2023. According to him, he intends to expand his project to the rest of the islands and present himself to preside over the Canary Islands. With ASG, the right-wing pact, only in the most optimistic scenario, could reach just the 36 seats necessary to once again hold power in the regional Parliament (half plus one).

However, better opportunities would be presented to the left-wing bloc despite the downturn that Podemos could suffer. The sum with ASG would come out, in the best of cases, with a result of 44 seats for the Pact of the Flowers compared to 38 in the worst. In any case, it would mean an improvement over the 37 deputies obtained in the 2019 elections.

Another question would be to venture if the latest friction between the quadripartite will take its toll or not. In principle, President Ángel Víctor Torres has shown a conviction to end the legislature without surprises and guarantees the stability of the pact despite acknowledging that "there are differences".

Finally, the decline of Ciudadanos in recent years completely collapses the intention to vote and goes from having accumulated 7.5% of the archipelago to disappearing from Parliament.