May 31, 2020

The IMF warns that climate change will hit Spain's regional convergence

J. T.


The Spanish economy will be one of the most affected by global warming. This is stated in the latest report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in this regard, which states that the increase in temperature hits economic sectors with greater force such as the farming wave industry, which predominate more in regions of lower income compared to services, more frequent in the richest communities. Therefore, the institution warns that this phenomenon will impact more strongly in three countries: Spain, U.S and Italy up to 2100.

Productivity in the most exposed regions and states «could fall between 2 and 3% in Italy, USA. and Spain until the year 2100 », while in countries such as Sweden, Canada, United Kingdom or Germany the adverse impact would be less than 1%.

If there is a temperature difference of about 5.5 degrees from the coldest to the hottest region in a country, the likelihood of a productivity gap increases 11%, according to IMF technicians. Therefore, global warming compromises the economic convergence of the regions.

More heat, less work

The institution draws two scenarios: in the most negative – in which the greenhouse gas emission continues to increase until 2100-, USA It is the most exposed country with a decrease in the productivity of the most exposed communities of more than 2.5%. In the less pessimistic scenario – which contemplates that since 2050, emissions begin to reduce – the most exposed is Spain, with a 1.5% performance reduction in these regions.

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