The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered the growth forecast of the Spanish economy for 2021 by two tenths. The forecast is not alarming except because it is one of the few countries within advanced economies that sees its economic projections reduced. If advanced economies increase their growth prospects by 0.5 percentage points in 2021, to 5.6%, the IMF points out that Spain will grow by 6.2%, two tenths less than in the April forecast. Now, the multilateral organization adds a percentage point to the growth of our country in 2022, up to 5.8%, remaining as the economy that will grow the most in the Eurozone in both years. The global economy is projected to grow 6.0% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022.
The Fund is concerned about divergences in the recovery. Growth prospects for advanced economies for this year have improved by 0.5 percentage points to 5.6%. Differences in support and fiscal policies are a source of a deepening gap. Considerable fiscal support remains in advanced economies, with $ 4.6 trillion announced relative to the pandemic available in 2021 and beyond.
It also warns that “recovery is not assured anywhere as long as segments of the population continue to be susceptible to the virus and its mutations” and draws attention since “the deployment of vaccines is slower than expected, it would allow the virus to still mutate. more”.
In this sense, the IMF highlights the role of the United States, with public policies that reflect the planned legislation for additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and serve as drivers for the rest of the economies. The US will grow 7% this year and 4.9% in 2022. In the case of the euro zone, the growth forecast adds two tenths more in 2021, to 4.6%, and half a percentage point more in 2022, up to 4.3%.
The fund recalls that in emerging and developing economies, most fiscal and support measures expired in 2020 and these countries are now looking to rebuild their fiscal reserves. Some emerging markets, such as Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Russia and Turkey, have also started to raise monetary policy rates to curb upward price pressures in an environment of commodity price inflation.
“Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022.” With this premise, the body headed by Kristalina Georgiev draws attention to central banks for the rise in prices: “Central banks should take into account temporary inflationary pressures and avoid tightening monetary policy until the underlying dynamics of prices”.