The IMF disrupts all the Government’s economic forecasts for this year and 2022


Madrid

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The IMF has cooled all the macroeconomic projections of the Government just one day before the presentation of the General Budgets of the State next year, which will come out tomorrow. The Executive already expected this corrective, after the notice of the INE (it lowered GDP growth by 1.7 points in the second quarter, to 1.1%), to which
tried to discredit after lowering GDP growth in the second quarter
. Now, the adjustment comes from a large international economic body, which not only cuts the forecast for economic growth for this year, but also calls into question the deficit, debt and unemployment forecasts that the Executive has set out in the preparation of the 2022 public accounts.

In this way, the IMF aligns itself with the INE and cuts its growth forecast for Spanish GDP this year by half a point to 5.7. They are 0.8 points less than the government’s forecasts, which, as reported by ABC, considers that the Statistics forecasts were not consistent with its indicators and that is why it maintains growth this year at 6.5%. IMF forecasts place our economy at an advance below the world average (+ 5.9%), when in its previous review published in July, Spain was above that line with an increase of 6.2%.

However, the latest monitoring of the International Monetary Fund of the Spanish economy goes beyond the hack to GDP. Because it also discusses the rest of the data macroeconomic advanced in public accounts. In the debt section, the IMF estimates that it will grow to 120.2% of GDP this year and will decrease to 116.4% in 2022. The government’s forecasts in this section are much more encouraging and place the debt at a 19.5% of GDP in 2021 and 115.1 next. About one point less this year and 1.3 next year.

ABC
ABC

Another forecast in which the Government and IMF do not coincide is in the deficit of the public accounts this year. Thus, the organization that leads Kristalina Georgieva – reaffirmed today as president after being accused of favoring China – places the public gap at -8.6%, 0.2 points more than the one indicated by the Executive. The only data on which both coincide is in the 2022 deficit, for which they predict a 5% mismatch.

Finally, the organization also calls into question the unemployment rate projected by the Executive in the Budgets for 2021 and 2022. Thus, the IMF places unemployment at 15.5% for this year and 14.8 for the next. In the public accounts, the Government predicts 15.2% at the end of this year and 14.1% in 2022.

Despite the hack, Spain will continue to be one of the major economies that will grow the most this year, a fact that was taken for granted after being the worst hit in 2020 by Covid, where the collapse was 10.8%. However, the recovery is not as strong. The IMF already places neighbors like France or Italy, whose setbacks last year were less intense, above. The latter with an increase of 6.3% in Gross Domestic Product, compared to the 5.8% that it marked in its previous report in July.

ABC
ABC

Thus the things, the IMF also revises upwards the economy of the Eurozone, that already places in a growth of 5% at the end of the year. In July, the forecast was 4.6%. Despite these advances, the organization led by Kristalina Goergieva warns that the global recovery momentum is weakening, “hampered by the variance Delta»Of the Covid-19.

The forecasts for Spain in 2022 are very different. The IMF has revised upwards the forecasts for that period with respect to our country. Thus, Spain expects the coming year to advance 6.4%, 0.6% more than in the last review carried out in July. In this way, the Spanish economy It would be the one that would grow the most among the most advanced countries, although it would grow more than half a point less than the Government’s budget.

However, far from receiving the data from the IMF cautiously, the Government is breastfeeding with it. “The IMF certifies that Spain will lead economic growth in 2022,” he said yesterday the Secretary of State for the Economy, Gonzalo García Andrés, on the social network Twitter. The socalist also stressed that this advance will mean “that Spain will be the most dynamic country in the EU”, since the international body estimates a growth of 4.9% for the world economy in 2022 and foresees that the euro zone will grow by 4, 3%.

Danger of inflation

In another order, the IMF continues to warn about the dangers that threaten the recovery of the economy at a global level. Among other threats, it warns about the incidence of inflation (in Spain it places it at 2.2% this year), which has the supply chain in check caused by “longer-than-expected interruptions, which is fueling inflation in many countries,” says the agency.

‘Supply disruptions pose another political challenge. On the one hand, pandemic outbreaks and climatic changes have caused a shortage of key inputs and reduced manufacturing activity in several countries. On the other hand, this shortage of supply, together with the release of pent-up demand and the rebound in commodity prices, have caused consumer price inflation to rise rapidly in USA (USA), Germany and many emerging market and developing economies, “the agency clarifies.

The organization is also concerned about the slowdown in growth in the less developed economies as a result of the large “vaccination gap” and the great disparities in economic support policies against the Covid. “While more than 60 percent of the population in advanced economies are vaccinated and some are now receiving booster injections, around 96 percent of the population in low-income countries remain unvaccinated,” he concludes.

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