If there is not Budgets there will be elections in 2019. This time the announcement of the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, is not a mere warning, or a form of pressure, but a firm decision of the president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez. Even so, and with the uncertainty about whether there will be or not, the Government trusts that the process will begin and there will be time ahead for the internal differences of the independence parties to evolve towards a yes to the State's accounts by 2019. Now, Immediately, the challenge of the government is in consolidating its expectations of the processing begins. The first step should take place on February 12 with the rejection of the Socialist Group and those who supported Pedro Sanchez in the motion of censure of the amendments to the totality that will defend the PP and Citizens.
If these amendments go forward on February 12, the path of the Budgets prepared by the Government for 2019 will be completed. Between February 12 and 14, the Congress has set the week for the debate on the amendments to the total that will be defended by the groups that want to reject government accounts. At the moment, PP and Citizens have decided to submit an amendment to the totality of the accounts.
Both ERC and PdECAT have not yet ruled out that they can also surprise and present their own amendment. But the Government wants to believe that this will not happen. In the meetings held with the Catalan government, the last one last Friday, although there is no concession to their demands to hold a referendum, it has been possible to talk about investments and socioeconomic proposals for Catalonia.
The dialogue is open but the backs also remain high. Therefore, the Finance Minister, María Jesús Montero did not hesitate yesterday to say Los Desayunos de TVE that "if the Budgets are not approved, there will be elections in 2019." He expressed himself in a non-challenging tone. The minister recalled, as an appointment of authority, that this possibility was already expressed by the President of the Government last December. They have not been elaborated Budgets to do theater but they are thought for their execution, assured the holder of Property.
Negotiation of partial amendments
The Government will have to talk about very specific matters with the groups to whom it will request support. With Unidos Podemos there is a long way to go since they have an agreement both for the budgets and for other measures unrelated to the State's accounts. But changes can still be made in the process of amendments once the first obstacle of the amendments that want to return the budgets to the Government has been overcome. Between February 14 and April the Executive, with the socialist parliamentary group, will begin the negotiation amendment after amendment. This is the offer he has made to the independence groups. In this process, the PNV and Nueva Canarias will also join those who need to reject the amendments of the opposing groups, and then for the rest of the process. This can end in April with the approval of the accounts.
In the middle there may be obstacles that prevent it and all related to the situation in Catalonia, government sources acknowledge.
The transfer next week of the Catalan politicians of the prisons of that autonomous community to Madrid, to declare before the Supreme Court, is awaited with expectation and concern. The beginning of the trial for alleged crimes of rebellion or sedition can create an emotional climate in part of the Catalan public opinion that does not favor any agreement of the pro-independence parties with the government of the nation. The security of the government in that the budgets will pass the first step, becomes deep doubts about how the processing will end.