The Government is studying raise the maximum contribution bases at least 10% to enter between 1,000 and 1,100 additional million and thus balance the accounts of the Administration. This has been announced by the president of the Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (Airef), José Luis Escrivá, this Thursday in the Committee on Budgets of the Congress of Deputies.
Thanks to this measure, which is not included in the draft budget plan submitted by the government to the European Commission, will raise three tenths the income forecast, which according to the calculations of the Airef will reach a range of between 6,078 and 7,698 million euros for this year. "Quotations will go from growing 5.5% this year to 6.7%," said Escrivá, who also stressed that the government has informed the agency of subsequent measures to the budget plan.
Despite this tax increase, the Airef estimates that the public deficit will reach 2.8% of GDP in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, one tenth more than in the previous year. 2.7% objective agreed between the Government and the European Commission. And it is that although it expects that the income increase three tenths, the expenses will do it in four.
According to Escrivá, spending forecasts are "unlikely". The organism foresees a "one off" of 800 million euros that, as anticipated by ABC, will carry according to the organism the judicial conflict that maintains the Generalitat of Catalonia with Acciona for the liquidation of the adjudication of Waters of the Llobregat. This "one off" will be joined by other disbursements moved by judgments referring to the Balearic Islands, Andalusia and Valencia that will have an impact of 300 million. In addition, according to the Airef, there will be an increase in interest and the revision of GDP by the INE and a deviation of the expenditure of the autonomous communities and municipalities. In fact, Escrivá pointed out that in the second half of the year there is already a "slippage" of fiscal rules in several regions.
In total, the deviation of spending will be 300 million derived from eliminating the pharmaceutical copayment, a measure that according to the Executive would not have any expense and for a greater outlay with respect to the expected derived by the revaluation of pensions to the CPI and rise of the minimum and non-contributory to 3%. All this will cause a total expenditure of 2,886 million, according to the agency.
On the revenue side, the Airef It foresees that the collection will be in a range of between 5,078 and 6,598 million. Between 580 and 2,100 million less compared to the 7,178 million provided by the Government. The institution agrees on the estimation of the Government's collection of corporate tax and the reduction in this tax for SMEs, VAT and hydrocarbons tax. But it foresees lower collection with respect to the Government's estimate in the Personal Income Tax (increase of between 245 and 255 million, compared to the 328 foreseen by the Executive), the tax on financial transactions (between 420 and 850 million, compared to 850 for the Government). ), the 'Google rate' (546 and 968 million against 1,200), as well as the set of anti-fraud measures.
During his appearance, the president of the Airef It has also evaluated the rise of 22.3%, up to 900 euros, of the minimum interprofessional salary (SMI). Escrivá has acknowledged that this is an unprecedented measure that will affect 1.2 million workers and increase gross disposable income by some 1,750 million euros, counting 1,260 million from net transfers to households included in the Budgets.
Of course, also stressed that this measure can trigger a great uncertainty in The work market. The expected impact on employment estimated by the Airef would be a fall in the creation of jobs of about 40,000 jobs in 2019 and another 50% in subsequent years. In addition, it would lose two tenths competitiveness and the rise of exports.