The German economy will need 260,000 immigrants to arrive annually in the country in the next 40 years to compensate for the aging of the population and meet the needs of labor, according to a study presented on Tuesday by the Bertelsmann Foundation.
According to the study, it is expected that from other EU countries the country will reach, up to 2060, 114,000 people on average, which would require that 114,000 immigrants from third countries arrive each year.
The authors of the study, Johann Fuchs and Alexander Kubis of the Institute for Labor Market Studies and Lutz Schneider of the University of Coburg, assume that the birth rate in Germany will increase as well as the number of people who will work after of 60 years.
However, even considering these factors, an increase in the age of retirement at 70 years and an increase in the presence of women in the labor market, labor needs can not be met without immigrants, according to the study.
"Immigration is one of the keys to future success, Germany needs skilled workers, also from regions outside Europe." said Jörg Dräger, member of the dome of the Bertelsmann Foundation.
Digitization, according to the study, will not reduce labor needs but, on the contrary, will increase the demand for highly qualified workers. In the long term, there is a reduction in the shortage of personnel with university training, but that of workers with intermediate technical training will be worsened.
European immigration will not be enough to cover German needs, especially if we take into account that neighboring countries will also be affected by demographic change.
In addition, incentives for workers from other European countries to move to Germany will decrease as economic convergence advances within the EU.