The foci of the sixth wave: Huesca, Ourense and Irún, above 1,000 cases of incidence


The foci of the sixth wave: Huesca, Ourense and Irún, above 1,000 cases of incidence

* Information updated with the latest data available as of December 7.

The sixth wave is already making itself felt in much of the country. The north of the peninsula concentrates the most affected municipalities, mainly in Euskadi and Navarra, but also in Aragon, Asturias, Catalonia and specific points in Galicia. In the cities of Huesca, Ourense and Irún (Gipuzkoa) the incidence exceeds 1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days and the increase in infections does not show signs of reaching its peak. In two weeks, the incidence has doubled, tripled and even multiplied by four in the case of the Aragonese city.

In nine other cities, the highest level of incidents is also exceeded in the new Health traffic light, which places the very high risk of contagion above 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, although other criteria must be added to this, such as occupation of ICU beds or the number of hospitalizations. These are some of the results extracted from the analysis carried out by elDiario.es from the data of the Health Departments of the 17 autonomous communities and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. You can read more details about obtaining this data in the methodology.

Globally, confirmed COVID-19 cases are increasing 📈in 1603 localities where 82% of the Spanish population lives, decreasing 📉 in 262 municipalities where 3% of the population lives and they are in the plateau phase (more or less the same as two weeks ago) at 75, where 3% live. The rest are very small municipalities where very few cases are registered - less than 5 every two weeks - or for which there is no information available - which represent 12% of the Spanish population.

The following graph shows the ranking of large municipalities (with more than 40,000 inhabitants) according to the number of confirmed cases in the last 14 days in relation to their population and also how the incidence has changed in the last two weeks compared to the previous two.

The map that opens this information shows the data of total confirmed COVID-19 cases, in 14 days and the trend of infections in each municipality of the autonomous communities that have published their contagion data in each locality: practically the entire territory to With the exception of the smaller municipalities of Castilla y León, Catalonia and Galicia, which do not break down the figures for the municipalities with fewer inhabitants.

The data for each municipality used for this article show the same variable: the number of people who have tested positive for coronavirus and for whom their place of residence has been identified. Most communities include the data of positives by PCR test, antigen test and some also add the cases confirmed by rapid antibody test. This medium, which has been collecting data by municipality since the end of March 2020, calculates the trend of cases in each municipality by comparing the number of confirmed cases in the last two weeks with the infections detected in the previous two weeks.

It must be taken into account that the data of the communities are not always homogeneous among themselves due to the type of tests they include, the dates on which their figures are updated or due to changes in the publication of the data in the same month. The update date of each community depends on each one of them: most keep their figures updated weekly but some are delayed when updating their figures.

In total, the figures collected add up to millions of coronavirus cases in which the municipality of residence of the infected person has been identified. Of the 17 autonomous regions analyzed, Madrid is the city with the most infected people detected in a single municipality. However, the municipalities with the highest incidence rate (cases per 100,000 inhabitants) are small localities in which an outbreak can affect a larger proportion of the population.

Many municipalities do not appear as there is no data available and some communities do not publish the total number of confirmed cases since the beginning of the epidemic. It should be borne in mind that the number of cases is closely related to the ability of health authorities to detect them. That is, the more tests or analyzes performed, the more cases detected. How many confirmed cases are there in each municipality and how is the current incidence in your locality? Check it out in the following table.

Several communities initially refused to publish data by municipality to avoid the social stigmatization of small municipalities with many infected. This is the case of the Autonomous Government of La Rioja, which initially was not going to publish data by locality and now publishes it for all municipalities.

The Balearic Islands initially refused to share their data, although in the end they published it. Extremadura, under the same criteria, initially only published 8 most populated municipalities in the region. Now it publishes the figures even by local entities, villages and districts. Castilla y León is only publishing its figures for municipalities with more than 1,000 inhabitants and La Rioja is not publishing now the figures for towns with fewer residents. They are not the only cases, practically half of the regions refused to publish their figures, arguing that they wanted to avoid the stigmatization of specific municipalities. Today, they all publish their data on COVID-19 cases by municipality.

Galicia has been the last to publish the figures by municipality, which has added to its COVID-19 data portal almost 6 months since the start of the epidemic. The Galician community does not publish the figures of the municipalities that have registered between one and nine cases in the last 14 days. Now all the autonomies publish the figures broken down by locality on their transparency portals, open data web or official pages with the situation of COVID-19.

Precisely, these data are essential to combat an epidemic: they make it possible to detect sources of contagion and act accordingly, provide more information to local administrations and regional governments of neighboring communities, and facilitate the analysis of the impact of the epidemic.

This analysis makes it possible to check in which areas there is a higher incidence rate based on variables such as average income, percentage of the population over 65 years of age or population density. Precisely, from all administrations hundreds of statistics are published broken down by municipality: population by age, country of birth, nationality, average income, data on registered unemployment, level of studies or mortality rates.

Countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom or the United States publish their data on confirmed cases at the district, local authority and county level, an administrative level similar to a municipality in Spain.

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