Long day for the Government in terms of macroeconomic forecasts. In the morning, the
Bank of Spain confirmed a major revision of its projections for 2021; In the afternoon, the Airef has put figures to update it downwards. Even so, in the Executive they turn a deaf ear to all the alerts from experts and institutions.
Cristina Herrero, president of the Fiscal Authority (Airef), has indicated in the Budget Committee of the Congress of Deputies that the ax National Institute of Statistics (INE) The rise in GDP in the second quarter forces them to revise their forecasts extensively. Thus, the institution goes from forecasting a growth of 6.4% for this year to 5.5%. Nine tenths less. For 2022 there is also a reduction, from 6.8% to the current 6.3%.
These data contrast with what the Executive expects in its macroeconomic picture. The Government continues to be castled, despite what happened in the second quarter, in which it will grow 6.5% this year and 7% the next. As ABC reported, they are slowly being left alone in their optimism.
BBVA Research, Caixabank Research, the IMF and now Airef have already drastically reduced their estimates for the present exercise. The Bank of Spain will do so in the coming weeks, as is expected to happen with the figures provided by the European Commission.
The Airef, although it recognizes that the Government’s forecast is in its probability range, gives it a possibility that they are real lower than when it gave its endorsement of the 2022 Budgets just a few weeks ago. The problem is that, then, the Executive it was ahead of the INE by releasing its updated macro table before Statistics published its review.
This has also generated a reproach from the Fiscal Authority. “It did not seem reasonable that within two days of presenting the macroeconomic data, very relevant data such as those of the INE would be presented”Herrero has pointed out, to add that he is “at a crossroads.” “The INE seems to have no margin to shorten the calendar as they have informed us and it is not possible to advance the calendar for updating the quarterly data. On the other hand, there is a legal obligation to present the Budget project three months before the end of the fiscal year. Airef issues the guarantee within 2-3 days from when the information is sent, with the information that is available from the macroeconomic table that accompanies the Budgets, ”he said. In other words, that with the times that are managed in the calendars of the Government and the INE, nothing but problems are generated.
That is why Herrero has urged to take a decision so that the Government takes into account all the information available when presenting its macroeconomic picture, “whether it is public or not.” Likewise, the president of the Tax authority It has also pulled the Executive by the ears for what is announced after presenting the PGE. In this sense, it has urged not to present new measures in the following weeks or months that are not part of said document or of the budget plan that is sent to the European Commission.