The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) sees "unlikely" that the public deficit ends this year at 1.3% of GDP, as expected by the Government, and estimates that it will deviate to 2.2%.
The president of AIReF, José Luis Escrivá, pointed out during his appearance before the Committee on Budgets of the Congress of Deputies on the occasion of the processing of the accounts of 2019 that Spain will fulfill "with complete certainty" the deficit target for 2018, of 2.7%.
However, it is unlikely that 2019 will end at 1.3% of GDP and points to a much higher figure of 2.2% of GDP.
AIReF believes that in the best of cases the central administration will end the year with a deficit of 1% of GDP, when its target is 0.3%, due to various factors, among which the national accounting adjustments stand out.
Escrivá added that the institution believes that revenues will be about two tenths lower than the Government estimates and that they will rebound by 7.6% instead of the 9.5% that the Executive expects.
In particular, it has alluded to the new tax measures included in the Budget, with whichThe Executive expects to raise 5,654 million, a figure that AIReF reduces to 2,908 million, about 1,300 million less, mainly because they will come into force with the year already advanced.
Thus, of the 2,050 million that the Government expects to obtain from taxes on certain digital services and financial transactions, AIReF believes that only 349 million will be achieved.
As well estimates that nothing will be achieved with the increase of the property tax (the Government expects 339 million) and its calculation of the collection by anti-fraud measures (348 million), hydrocarbon tax (503 million) or increase in income tax for higher incomes (250 million) is far from that made by the Executive (828, 670 and 328 million, respectively).
On the other hand, both they agree that the changes in corporate tax, which includes a minimum effective rate for large companies, will manage to enter 1,516 million.
The AIReF The IRPF collection estimate is unlikely -by the impact of the tax exemption for maternity and paternity benefits or the elevation of the exempt minimum-, but feasible those of companies and VAT, since the Authority expects a more positive impact of the cycle than the Government.
Escrivá has indicated that Social Security will register a deficit of 1.5% of GDP, far from the 0.9% estimated by the Government, in part because the Executive expects to obtain almost 3,000 million Euros with the new measures put in place , such as increases in the minimum wage and the maximum contribution bases, a figure that AIReF reduces to around 2,300 million.
Especially significant is the impact of the rise in the minimum wage, which the Government quantifies at 1,279 million and AIReF limits it to between 550 and 650 million.
The increase in pension expenditure included in the Budget, of 6%, coincides with that of the Authority, although Escrivá recalled that this factor will make the structural deficit of Social Security persist.
AIReF believes that the autonomous communities will meet their deficit target of 0.1% of GDP and that the change in the VAT methodology will have a neutral impact, while local corporations will once again register a surplus of around 0.5% of GDP.
Regarding the deficit target included in the macroeconomic table, Escrivá sees its fulfillment feasible.