TheEuropean Comissionhas revised two tenths up itsgrowth forecast for Spain in 2019, when he trusts that the economy will expand at a rate of2.3%, practically twice as much as the 1.2% growth projected for the euro zone, while maintaining its growth forecast of 1.9% in 2020, half a point above the average for the eurozone.
From the Ministry of Economy and Enterprise it has been highlighted that"Spain is the only one of the great economies of the euro zonewhose growth has been revised upwards due to the dynamism registered in the first part of the year ".
Last June,the Bank of Spain raised two tenths, up to 2.4%, its estimate of Spanish GDP increase for 2019, maintaining its forecasts for 2020 and 2021, respectively, at 1.9% and 1.7%.
In its analysis, Brussels highlights the "surprise" of a growth of Spain in the first quarter (+ 0.7%) stronger than expected by the positive contribution of exports to the slight contraction of imports, adding that the dynamism of investment in housing and equipment offset the weakness of the increase in consumption.
Looking ahead to the following quarters,The Commission notes in its provisional summer forecaststhat the surveys and indicators of activity point to a 0.6% increase in GDP in the second quarter, surpassing, despite the slowdown, the forecasts for spring before the recovery of some impulse for consumption.
"Growth is expected to decrease somewhat in the third quarter of 2019, stabilizing around a 0.5% quarterly rate during the remaining quarters of the forecast horizon, in line with what was anticipated in the spring," the Commission notes.
In this sense, Brussels anticipates that thedomestic demand, and in particular consumer,will continue to be the main driver of growthof the Spanish economy, with a virtually neutral contribution of net exports.
"In a context of global trade tensions, exports and imports from Spain are still expected to recover, but less than expected in the spring," the Commission warns, adding that the increase in employment should decrease along the horizon. the forecasts, although it will continue to expand strongly, which will further reduce the unemployment rate, which, together with wage increases, should support the increase in disposable income and a higher rate of household savings.
Refering toevolution of prices in Spain, the new macroeconomic forecasts of the European Commission contemplate a harmonized inflation rate of 0.9% in 2019, four tenths below the average of 1.3% foreseen for the whole of the euro zone, while in 2020 the prices will rise by 1.2%, compared to 1.3% of the Nineteen.
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