The EU will measure the magnitude of the populist threat in European elections

The EU will measure the magnitude of the populist threat in European elections



The European Union, immersed in its worst existential crisis, will measure in the elections on May 26 the magnitude of the threat of populism and the extreme right for the future of the common project, a decade after the great economic crisis.

If until now the great coalition of popular and social democrats in the European Parliament had only been answered by groups such as liberals or environmentalists, in 2019 the populist, eurófobas and far right options, already present in many national governments, threaten to enter as " Trojan horse "in the hemicycle of Strasbourg.

Populism will not debut however in the next European elections. In the 2014 elections Marine Le Pen (former National Front) and Nigel Farage (UKIP) already managed to create separate parliamentary groups, albeit residual.

Facing the elections of May 2019, analysts predict an increase in the number of eurosceptic election options, although they do not calculate that they will get more than 200 of the future 705 seats.

"The key is not the exact number they get, but if they are able to join a parliamentary group, if they are divided into at least two groups, they will not be as dangerous as if they form a single group and they can position themselves as the second group in the hemicycle." They highlighted parliamentary sources.

In recent years, governments such as the Austrian government, formed totally or partially by far-right parties favorable to restrict the role of the EU, have increased.

The most worrisome case in recent times is that of Italy, which, before the economic crisis and the massive influx of immigrants to its shores, was a deeply pro-European country.

Although more alarming for many in Brussels for being a regional phenomenon is the emerging Euroscepticism in Eastern countries: Romania, Poland and Hungary, especially.

Also in France will again measure its strength Le Pen (National Association) against Emmanuel Macron (In Marche) and in Germany the rising Alternative by Germany that has swelled its ranks of followers, after the opening of borders to the refugees of Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2015.

On the other hand, they will be the first European elections not to be held in the United Kingdom. The remaining twenty-seven members were divided among the 73 British seats, which will especially benefit Spain, which will go from having 54 seats to 59 in 2019.

The "brexit" has its key day, March 29, two months before the elections, a fact that some analysts fear may have contagious effect, while others predict that it will be positive for many citizens to come to vote because "the rights Europeans can not be taken for granted and can be lost if they are not mobilized. "

Between the growing Eurosceptic community tide resists the Spanish European islet. Spain is the only country, as the leaders in Brussels often point out, who do not have a party with an Eurófoba political agenda.

To the rise of the extreme right, as in other European countries, the Vox party can contribute in Spain, although not in a relevant way. The polls for now only foresee that it will get a MEP, forecast similar to that of 2014, when they stayed at 10,000 votes of the seat.

Key will also be in these elections the fight against false news and interference that could come from Russia, something that happened in 2014, but also this time from the US, with the anti-European movement that tries to bring together the former head of strategy of Donald Trump in his ascent to the White House, Steve Bannon.

The spokesman of the European Parliament, Jaume Duch, said that it is a phenomenon that is perceived with "strangeness", although he drew attention to the limited success so far of the initiative after the "enfant terrible" of the European People's Party, Viktor Orbán , have refused to join their ranks.

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