The ECB forecasts a slowdown in the global economy in 2019

The ECB forecasts a slowdown in the global economy in 2019


The global growth will lose momentum over the next year as a result of the maturing of the economic cycle and the withdrawal of support from central banks, as well as the negative impact of commercial tensions, as the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned in the latest edition of its economic bulletin.

"Looking ahead, global economic activity is expected to slow down in 2019 and remain stable later," the institution said, noting that the maturation of the global economic cycle, the lower support of monetary policies in advanced economies and the impact of tariffs between the United States and China "are holding back global activity."

In this sense, the central bank considers that "the risks for the global economic activity are biased to the downside", warning that a new escalation of trade disputes "could significantly impact global growth".

Other downside risks to growth are related to a faster than expected hardening of the financial conditions on a global scale generate greater tensions in emerging economies, with uncertainty about the reform process in China, and political and geopolitical uncertainties, including the risks associated with 'Brexit'.

According to the macroeconomic projections of the Eurosystem experts of December 2018, world real GDP growth (excluding the euro area) will be at 3.8% this year, before falling to 3.5% in 2019, and during the period 2020-2021 will remain practically stable.

In the case of the euro zone, the latest data and the results of more recent surveys indicate a weaker evolution than expected, as a consequence of the lower contribution of external demand and of certain factors related to specific countries and sectors.

Thus, the entity worsened its forecast of growth for the eurozone in its meeting on December 13 in 2018 and 2019, when it forecasts an expansion of 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively, adjusting one tenth to the its previous forecasts are down, while for 2020 it decided to keep its growth forecast unchanged at 1.7% and projected an expansion of 1.5% in 2021.

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