Mon. Apr 22nd, 2019

The ECB believes that the probability of a recession in the eurozone is low

El BCE cree que la probabilidad de una recesión en la eurozona es baja

The European Central Bank (BCE) affirms that the probability that the Euro zone, in full deceleration, enter recession "Is still low" and that in case that scenario happens "is ready" to apply the necessary measures, as has held on Wednesday its president, Mario Draghi, after the meeting of your Council.

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The Italian banker argues his position by the fact that in previous recessions "they were more likely to arrive", not as now, in which they are minors. Regarding the role of the ECB, all the tools are available if necessary. "We have instruments. We have shown it ... ", he said at the press conference in which he reported on monetary policy, which remains unchanged despite warnings about the slowdown in countries like Germany. launched by the IMF.


A sea of ​​uncertainties in the global context

His words come in full slowdown of growth, something that "is expected to extend throughout the year." In that sense, Draghi speaks of a "context of lower growth" and the "persistence" of geopolitical uncertainties, such as the "threat" of protectionism or vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

And to this is added the possibility of a commercial shock with the United States, after the president Donald Trump
will announce 11,000 million in tariffs against products of the European Union. "We have to see what happens" because there is a big gap between what is said and what is done, he said.

However, Draghi believes that there is still a need for an accommodative monetary policy, fiscal reforms in the countries of the euro zone and closing the banking union.

Keep the path

No change in monetary policy: rates remain at historic lows

The BCE has maintained its monetary policy without change. It will continue to reinvest the maturities of the bonds acquired under the QE "for a prolonged period after the date on which the official interest rates begin to rise"; and the rates remain unchanged, at historic lows, "at least until the end of 2019." And beyond if necessary.

In this sense, the main reference remains at 0%, the marginal lending facility -referred to one day- at 0.25% and what it charges institutions to save their deposits remains at -0.4% .

Regarding the new liquidity auctions for banks (TLTRO) announced in March will be another of the weapons to maintain the credit flow. Although the market expected to know how they will be, no specificities were discussed and the details will come at a future meeting, said Draghi.

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