This Sunday Spain plays more than four years of government. The general elections of the 10-N They are preceded by exceptional circumstances. Not only the same electoral repetition when different agreements were made arithmetically makes these elections an atypical appointment with the polls. The sentence of you process made public four weeks ago and what happened thereafter particularly in Catalonia may have disrupted the entire political board that was established on April 28.
For all this, the main protagonists of that time have reacted to the circumstances and neither their expectations nor their positions are the same as in the previous elections. The final part of this reading career is summarized below in an illustrative alphabet.
Santiago Abascal He can be the great beneficiary of the electoral repetition and reach about 50 seats compared to the 24 he has now. The Vox leader has seen how the electoral expectations of his party only grow in the polls. Riots in Catalonia after the ruling of you process and the exhumation of Frank have favored ultra-right training which proposes a hard-handed policy against independence and that he unambiguously opposed the unearthing of the dictator. In addition, Abascal had a good debut in the electoral debate last Monday. Surveys of most digital newspapers gave him the winner.
Barcelona has become the epicenter of this pre-election stage due to the disturbances experienced since the publication of the procés sentence on October 14. The altercations have been carried out by violent groups, who threw stones, bearings, acid, Molotov cocktails, pyrotechnics – even against a police helicopter – lit hundreds of barricades, burned more than a thousand containers and caused damage to urban furniture, pulling traffic lights, road signs and destroying the pavement and electrical panels. The incidents resulted in 600 injured, more than one hundred detainees, 28 jailed and damages exceeding 2.5 million euros.
The CUP appears for the first time at a general election. And it does it with good vibes, since the surveys predict that it will achieve representation. The candidates of the independence formation, Albert Botran, Eulàlia Reguant, Mireia Vehí and Francesc Gabarrell, they are not yet deputies, but they have already debuted in the hemicycle, where they recorded a video and hung a poster to make it very clear that their intention is for Spain to be “ungovernable”.
This brief campaign has only left a debate among the five candidates for the presidency of the Government. Pedro Sánchez, Pablo Casado, Albert Rivera, Pablo Iglesias and Santiago Abascal they beat themselves dialectically on Monday in a meeting organized by the Television Academy. In April, there were two debates between the leaders of the main parties. To compensate, TVE organized a meeting between parliamentary spokespersons, that was attended by Adriana Lastra (PSOE), Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo (PP), Agnes
Arrimadas (Cs), Irene Montero (UP), Iván Espinosa de los Monteros (Vox), Gabriel Rufián (ERC) and Aitor Esteban (PNV). The Sixth closed the cycle with a debate of women, which issued on Thursday, with Maria Jesus Montero (PSOE), Ana Pastor (PP), Inés Arrimadas (Cs), Irene Montero (UP) and Rocío Monasterio (Vox)
After many postponements, family resources and a ruling from the Supreme Court, the Government was finally able to proceed to the exhumation of Franco, one of his star measures that Pedro Sánchez announced as soon as he came to power. The judicial delay meant that the dictator's unearthing coincided with the electoral stage. On October 24, Franco's remains were taken from the Valley of the Fallen in the presence of his descendants. Later, they were transferred to the Mingorrubio cemetery in El Pardo where a group of Francoists waited to pay tribute. Among them, Antonio Tejero, the lieutenant colonel of the Civil Guard who starred in the coup d'etat of 1981. After the transfer, Sanchez read a statement in Moncloa to celebrate it.
The hint of Pedro Sánchez that he will bring Carles Puigdemont back to Spain thanks to his control of the Prosecutor's Office irritated the Public Ministry. “Who does the Prosecutor's Office depend on?”, The acting President of the Government asked an interview. It was a rhetorical question, because the vice president, Carmen Calvo, said shortly after that it is the Executive who appoints the attorney general. Spanish prosecutors reacted warning that they are not subject to government orders. Puigdemont himself and the opposition parties joined the criticism against Sánchez. The next day, the president granted an interview to La Sexta to apologize for his statements, which he attributed "to the tiredness of the campaign."
The candidate of ERC to the Congress has consolidated in this campaign his change of political profile. In past times he was characterized by his somewhat hooligan attitude in his parliamentary interventions, which led to the then president of Congress, Ana Pastor, to expel it from the hemicycle. Already in April, Gabriel Rufián changed behavior and calmed down after replacing Joan Tardà as head of the list of Republicans for generals. Now, he has completed that transformation and has shown tranquility and sense of state in the debates and in his public appearances during the campaign. So much so that the protester expelled him from one of the protests over the sentence of the you process. Rufián has focused his campaign on underlining the anti-independence movement of the PSOE to try to take votes from the PSC. ERC is running as virtual winner of tomorrow's elections in Catalonia.
Although the situation in Catalonia has been the star of this campaign, the tax issue has been latent in the rallies and programs of all parties. How to manage public finance is a matter that clearly divides to the right of the left. The PSOE advocates introducing new environmental taxes and technology companies. We can also raise a new tax for banking. The PP is in favor of reducing the fiscal pressure. The same as Citizens, which raises "eliminate political bars" to lower taxes. Vox goes further and proposes to eliminate autonomies to, with what is saved, put a single rate of 22% in personal income tax to 93% of the population
Pablo Iglesias He has had two major challenges during this campaign: to convey to his electorate that the fault of the electoral repetition was not of United We can and present itself as the true left before a PSOE "willing to agree with the right". The electoral cycle began with an element against the interests of the leader of the purple formation, the announcement of Íñigo Errejón that these second generals of November would attend. His former partner took some of the former collaborators of Iglesias. But after things have calmed down, Errejón's candidacy has had less media echo than expected and, after a good participation in the debate on five last Monday, Iglesias leaves at 10-N with the possibility of achieving a result very similar to which he achieved in April when his training won 42 seats.
Central Electoral Board
The Central Electoral Board has had less prominence in this campaign than in April, when it opened a file against Quim Torra and he took the president of the Generalitat to the Prosecutor's Office for an alleged disobedience, having disregarded his order to withdraw yellow ties and other symbols from the public buildings of the Generalitat.On this occasion, the most resounding resolution of the Board has been the opening of a file against Pedro Sánchez for having granted an interview with La Sexta in the Palacio de la Moncloa, when this space should be considered as a neutral zone in the electoral campaign. The result of this file is still unknown, but the president faces a fine of up to 3,000 euros.
The yellow ties have not had on this occasion the same role as in April. As on that occasion, the Central Electoral Board resolved that in the electoral period, they should withdraw from the public buildings of the Generalitat. But this time, Quim Torra did not take the plunge and removed them. However, on the day of the debate on TV3 among the candidates in Catalonia,
Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo
He arrived at the studios of Catalan television and found ties hung by all the facilities, which he did not hesitate to withdraw and throw them in the bin. Too Inés Arrimadas He removed all the ties he found on his way to the set.
Íñigo Errejón He took advantage of the electoral repetition to mark his own profile and jump into the national electoral arena. The former partner and friend of Pablo Iglesias reproached his former party, United We, that he had failed to close a government pact with the PSOE. Errejón chose the acronym More Country and managed to seduce Compromís and Equo to close their electoral lists. He achieved a lot of visibility in the pre-campaign, but his proposal has blurred a bit in recent days, among other things, not being able to participate in the debates for lacking electoral representation. The polls predict that he can enter the Congress with up to four deputies.
One of Pedro Sánchez's great announcements during the five-year election debate was that, if he governs, he will become vice president of Nadia Calviño. This week, Europe has lowered the forecast of growth of the Spanish economy and has rebounded unemployment. Rumors about a slowdown are the order of the day. Calviño has a good profile to deal with Brussels, where she is a high official. It also has a more conservative tone than that of the Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus Montero, so, with his designation, Sánchez launches a message that he will bet on prudence if they are badly given in the economy.
Oriol Junqueras He was sentenced by ruling of the Supreme Court of October 14 to 13 years in prison for the crimes of sedition and embezzlement. That same day, the Central Electoral Board resolved that Junqueras could not be a candidate for general elections as head of the ERC list for Barcelona. Junqueras appealed to the JEC on Thursday alleging that he has lodged an appeal before European justice and that, according to a Supreme Court's own order, it cannot be disabled until that appeal is resolved, so he demanded that he be returned candidate. But the JEC dismissed his petition, because article 6 of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime establishes that “those convicted by a final sentence, under penalty of deprivation of liberty, in the period that lasts the penalty” are ineligible, as is the case of Junqueras .
Pablo Casado It may be one of the great winners of the electoral repetition. The PP spent them in April when he only won 66 seats against the 137 he had in the previous legislature. Now, life has given Casado a second chance. The leader of the PP has moderated his message in this campaign, has included in his lists more moderate profiles such as Ana Pastor, who goes by two in Madrid, and has tried to recover the center. This tactic can report significant electoral growth, which would materialize at the expense of citizens, according to the polls, which have reached the popular on the border of the 100 seats. However, these good expectations could be punctured if at the last moment there was the boom of Vox that augur the electoral tracking of the last days.
The wind does not blow in favor of Albert rivera in this electoral repetition. Citizens achieved a record result in April, 57 deputies. The leader of the orange formation, who had promised during the campaign that he would not agree with Pedro Sánchez, did not want to give his arm to twist and remained impassive during the negotiations between the PSOE and Podemos. When the electoral repetition was coming, Rivera made Sanchez a last minute offer, which did not work. Now, things look badly given for oranges. The polls predict a blow that could translate into 16 seats. Rivera tried to trace in the debate, but according to experts, he failed. However, the leader of Citizens is convinced that polls are always wrong with his party and that the comeback on election day is possible.
Pedro Sánchez is emerging as the virtual winner of tomorrow's elections in all polls. But he has a problem, the polls predict that he will not have it easy to agree on a stable government, as is his desire. The leader of the PSOE closed the door to a coalition with Podemos, although it could establish some other type of alliance with those of Iglesias. However, Sanchez made a wink in the debate towards PP and Citizens by announcing a battery of anti-independence measures such as recovering the crime by organizing an illegal referendum that eliminated José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero of the Criminal Code.
Tezanos, José Félix
José Félix Tezanos It is in the eye of the hurricane since it became position of the CIS. Partly because of the PSOE executive and partly because of the change in the methodology of the surveys it has launched and that has received criticism from the demographic sector. Your survey for this November 10 counts in your favor with being the one that offers a larger sample, since it is based on 17,000 interviews. But he has against him that does not match any of the others. Tezanos predicts a loose victory of the PSOE, which could reach up to 150 seats. Experts doubt it, because it was done before the altercations in Catalonia and before the exhumation of Franco. But they also questioned the April CIS and it was the survey that most closely approached the actual result. So Tezanos also examines the election night.
A group of young people camped in the Plaza Universitat de Barcelona to protest the sentence of the procés. Citizens took the camping to the Electoral Board when considering that it interfered in the campaign. The Electoral Board of Barcelona rejected the request of the Albert Rivera party to order the eviction of students from the University Square, although it urged the police to take the necessary measures so that it does not interfere with the 10-N vote. Approximately a thousand young people, most of them university students, sleep in the tents installed in front of the historic building of the University of Barcelona, in a multicolored multicolored camping where they have welcomed all the social struggles.
Visit of the King
The visit of the King Philip VI, the princess Leonor and the rest of the royal family to Barcelona last Monday for the delivery of the Princess of Girona awards was one of the most tense moments of the campaign. A group of CDR concentrated on the door of the Juan Carlos I hotel to prevent the entry of guests and protest against the monarch. The demonstration ended without major incidents and Leonor triumphed in his premiere as Princess of Girona with a speech he delivered in excellent Catalan. The King also spoke and did so to point out that in Catalonia there is no place for violence or intolerance.
Zapatero, José Luís Rodríguez
The former president of the Government José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero ruled out before the campaign a great coalition between the PSOE and PP after the general elections of 10-N. Zapatero has shown that the leftist forces (United We Can, More Country and the Socialists) configure a government "in any of its formulas" as a solution to the political blockade. Zapatero was not favorable to the electoral repetition nor were the socialists of the Mediterranean arch.