The Democratic race in the US entered this Sunday in a decisive phase with all eyes focused on super Tuesday, a mega election day that will distribute 34% of the support to achieve the candidacy of the party and to which the progressive senator Bernie Sanders arrives as a favorite.
After the resounding victory of Joe Biden in the primaries on Saturday in South Carolina, the big question in the United States is whether the former vice president will be able to translate that victory into a notable boost in the fourteen states that vote this Tuesday, March 3, and that mostly lean in favor of Sanders.
“I think we are going to do better than people think,” Biden said in an interview this Sunday with CNN.
THE GRAND PRIZE OF THE PRIMARY
The so-called super Tuesday has always been a crucial date to consolidate or collapse campaigns and to bring clarity to the primary course, but this year it has gained even more weight to include among the states that vote for California, the most populous territory in the country and Strong Democratic majority.
Along with California, other important states will vote for their population and weight in the November general elections such as Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia; in addition to Alabama, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and the territory of American Samoa.
Sanders is a favorite in the polls in at least eight of those states, including the major prizes in California and Texas, as well as in other major western ones such as Colorado and Utah.
“When we get to Colorado, California and Texas, there are a lot of Latinos there, and everyone loves Bernie Sanders,” a Senator adviser, Chuck Rocha, told CNN on Sunday.
BIDEN AGAINST SANDERS
Biden acknowledged this Sunday that he does not have so much infrastructure in the states that vote super Tuesday because he “did not have enough money” and because he focused his resources on South Carolina, but hoped to take his share of delegates on that date and on the success of his Long term strategy.
“After (from super Tuesday) we will move to states where I think we can win, like Florida, Georgia and other places” that also vote this month, Biden told CNN.
The former vice president does have options to win in at least one of the southern states that vote supermartens, Alabama, where he traveled this Sunday to campaign.
And Biden hopes to dispute Sanders the states of North Carolina and Virginia, where he steps a little more on the polls of the senator.
THE BLOOMBERG ENTRY
The big question of the super Tuesday will revolve around the entry into play of tycoon Michael Bloomberg, who joined the Democratic race late and decided not to compete in the first four states to vote, so it opens on the ballots this March 3 .
The former mayor of New York, one of the richest people in the world, has flooded television networks with ads in the last two months and has offered to spend up to $ 1 billion of his fortune to win President Donald Trump in November. , even if he is not finally the Democratic candidate.
But his rivals in the primaries have accused him of wanting to “buy” the candidacy and his poor performance in the first Democratic debate in which he participated, in addition to Biden’s victory in South Carolina, may have diminished his chances of emerging as the Great moderate alternative to Sanders.
The polls do not anticipate a clear victory for Bloomberg in any of the super Tuesday states, although he has options to prevail in Arkansas and has divided support with Sanders and Biden in Oklahoma; while Senator Amy Klobuchar is the favorite to win in the state she represents, Minnesota.
BEYOND THE SUPERMARKS
Since the candidates must obtain a minimum of 15% of the support in each state to take a delegate (that is, representatives of the voters who will support them in the Democratic convention), it is possible that after supermars some of the seven applicants still In Liza, end your campaign.
There are, basically, two possible scenarios after the super Tuesday: either an unstoppable rise of Sanders towards the Democratic candidacy if he achieves a decisive victory that day and manages to maintain momentum in the following weeks, or a more distributed result between the senator and the Moderate Candidates
That second option could increase the chances that none of the applicants achieve the magic figure of 1,991 delegates – of the total 3,979 at stake – that are needed to secure the Democratic nomination, and that a “broken convention” is reached in which The candidate depends on the internal struggles of the party.
Biden’s campaign relies on a third option in which he manages to emerge as a blunt alternative to Sanders, but it remains to be seen if he achieves enough momentum beyond South Carolina to achieve it.