July 10, 2020

The COVID-19 curve in Spain since March 14



The COVID-19 causes us to look at the curve of the deceased, infected and patients in the ICU day by day, which is going up while waiting for the long-awaited “peak” to start going down, although the discharge curve also grows. A detailed look at the data since March 14, the day the state of alarm was decreed, reflects some irregular percentages.

Spain has recorded since last January 31, when a positive case imported into the Canary Islands was confirmed, more than forty-seven thousand confirmed cases of coronavirus and almost three thousand five hundred deaths.

Eleven days after the country was in a state of alarm, we lived in the “hard” week, reiterates these days the director of the Center for Coordination of Emergencies and Health Alerts, Fernando Simón.

And he repeatedly explains that the comparison of data is not easy because there can be a lot of variability in the different parameters and changes in trends.

For example, the pressure on the health system, specifically on ICUs, will go beyond the moment when the transmission of the virus in Spain is controlled.

That will be because the hospitalized who go to Intensive Care do so in many cases days after being counted as diagnosed and being hospitalized.

Precisely, if we look at the number of patients in the ICU, we find that the curve is ascending, but their percentages per day are quite irregular, as is the case with the number of discharges or people cured.

The document “Update. Coronavirus disease” from the Ministry of Health, which is renewed every day, established on March 11 that there were 183 discharges and 142 people in the ICU.

Ten days later those figures rose to 2,125 and 1,612, that is, almost two thousand more discharges and one thousand more patients in the ICU, respectively, and only a little over a week had passed.

If we refer to percentages, in intensive care units the number of patients increased, for example, by 43.1% on March 13 compared to the previous day.

But later, 30.3% on day 15; 21.3% 19; 41.2% on day 21; 10.7% on 22; 31% 23; or 11.9% on day 24.

Very irregular percentages such as those registered among the number of people cured, as it rose just 5.1% on March 18 compared to the previous day.

However, it grew to 34.6% on day 21; 30.2% on day 23; and it fell to 13.08% on day 24.

Regarding the number of cases that have tested positive for coronavirus, the percentages also evolve, growing and, again, irregularly.

They rose 18% on day 16 compared to the previous day; but then 25% on day 17; or 19.8% on day 24.

And if we look at the figures of people who died from COVID-19, the upward curve also reflects, day by day, variable percentages: it grew to 111.7% on day 15 compared to the previous day.

Later, 58.8% on day 17; 28.2% on day 19; 32.3% on day 21; or 26.8% on day 23.

These are data that demonstrate the variability of the parameters that make up the COVID-19 curve, which would unfortunately have to specify the large number of health professionals affected by the pandemic, around 5,400 infected and two deceased.

But there is room for hope because the number of discharges that occur each day is exceeding that of the deceased.

Thus, between March 23 and 22, the number of deceased was 462 while discharges rose to 780.

And between March 24 and today 25 there have been 738 more deaths but 1,574 more discharges.

Listed below, since March 14, when the alarm status was applied, the number of deaths, confirmed infections, patients in the ICU and discharges according to the documents “Update. Coronavirus disease” of Health:

March 14: 136 deceased, 5,753 confirmed, 293 in the ICU and 517 discharges.

March 15: 288 deaths, 7,753 confirmed, 382 in the ICU and 517 discharges.

March 16: 309 deaths, 9,191 confirmed, 432 in the ICU and 530 discharges.

March 17: 491 deaths, 11,178 confirmed, 563 in the ICU and 1,028 discharges.

March 18: 598 deaths, 13,716 confirmed, 774 in the ICU and 1,081 discharges.

March 19: 767 deaths, 17,147 confirmed, 939 in the ICU and 1,107 discharges.

March 20: 1,002 deaths, 19,980 confirmed, 1,141 in the ICU and 1,585 discharges.

March 21: 1,326 deaths, 24,926 confirmed, 1,612 in the ICU and 2,125 discharges.

March 22: 1,720 deaths, 28,572 confirmed, 1,785 in the ICU and 2,575 discharges.

March 23: 2,182 deaths, 33,089 confirmed, 2,355 in the ICU and 3,355 discharges.

March 24: 2,696 deaths, 39,637 confirmed, 2,636 in the ICU and 3,794 discharges.

March 25: 3,434 deaths, 47,610 confirmed, 3,166 in the ICU and 5,367 discharges.

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