Contribution collection will continue to rise in 2019. It will exceed 120 billion for the first time. The Executive's forecasts say that this year the Social Security Treasury will enter 7.5% more than last year, which translates into an income of 123,584 million.
However, even if this optimistic forecast of income is met, expenses will remain well above. Only contributory pensions exceed the income figure by 11,684 million, as they will reach 135,268 million, 6.4% more than in 2018. When the other expenses in pensions (passive classes and non-contributory pensions) are incorporated, the total bill it reaches 153,168 million.
When explaining why the Government expects Social Security revenues to grow by 7.5% in a single year, the budget summary focuses on the different measures that the Government has put in place that can have an impact direct or indirect in the collection: increase of maximum contribution bases by 7%, imposed of 22.3% of the minimum wage and the minimum bases that it entails, contribution by the public coffers of the non-professional carers or increase of the bases of contribution of unemployment benefits from 100% to 125%.
All these measures would have almost as much impact on the collection as the own improvement derived from the increase in employment and salaries. According to the macroeconomic scenario that the Government has put on the table, in 2019 wages will rise by 2.1% and employment by 1.8%. The sum of both would bring an increase in collection by quotations of 3.9 percentage points. The remaining 3.6 points depend, then, on the correctness of the Government's calculations on the impact of the measures adopted.