The CIS prior to the PP crisis keeps the PSOE in the lead with a seven-point margin

CIS February 2022

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

The PSOE remains the party with the most votes, seven points behind the PP. This is reflected in the barometer of the Center for Sociological Research, which was prepared before the crisis that broke out in the PP last Thursday and which does not include the electoral effects that the confrontation between Pablo Casado and Isabel Díaz Ayuso may have.

The barometer hardly registers changes with respect to a month ago, with minimal variations in the main parties. The PSOE maintains its distance from the PP, and those of Pablo Casado, at least before the crisis, retain 21% of the votes and have Vox at 6.5 points, still far from the surprise, according to the CIS. The fieldwork for this installment of the CIS was carried out between February 1 and 12, coinciding with the electoral campaign in Castilla y León.

According to the CIS estimate, the PSOE would win the elections with 28.6% of the vote, only one tenth more than a month ago. Pedro Sánchez's party remains above its electoral results, although it is still far from its best data. This yes, the socialists maintain without too many problems the distance with the PP.

Between both parties there are now 7.3 points, when the distance became only three during some months of 2021. The PP drops two tenths compared to January, and remains at an estimated 21.3% vote, already losing the psychological barrier of the November 2019 results.

Of course, the barometer does not yet include the crisis unleashed in the party since last Thursday, with a total and open confrontation between Pablo Casado and Isabel Díaz Ayuso for the mask contract from which the brother of the regional president charged 55,000 euros. Casado tries to resist the pressure to resign and open a process to elect a new leader of the PP. Part of the party demands an immediate solution to the internal crisis to prevent the situation from leading, among other things, to a loss of votes for Vox

The CIS of February 2022 compared to 10N

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

The extreme right-wing party, which was the great winner of the electoral night in Castilla y León, is up one tenth compared to a month ago. According to the CIS, it is still far from fighting to overtake the PP, but for months it has been experiencing a gradual rise in vote estimates with each new installment of the barometer.

United We Can is one of the parties that rises the most compared to the February barometer. Get five tenths more in vote estimate: it goes from 13.1% in January to 13.6% in February. That rise places him 1.2 points behind Vox in the fight for third place. The formation, yes, comes from losing electoral space in Castilla y León, where they lost one of the two deputies they had.

Lastly, Ciudadanos is the one experiencing the most significant change. Inés Arrimadas's party, which when the fieldwork was done was positioned as a partner of the PSOE for the approval of the labor reform, rose from 4% in January to 4.8% in February. Even so, the party is in its worst vote estimation data and far from the already bad results they obtained in the 2019 elections.

Sánchez shortens distances with Díaz

As for the assessment of political leaders, the February CIS changes slightly in the trend of recent months. On that occasion, the Vice President and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, obtained a score of 4.87 while the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, obtained a score of 4.49, a slight rise that allows him to cut, albeit minimally, the distance with Diaz.

Behind them is the leader of Más País, Íñigo Errejón, with 4.01; Pablo Casado gets a 3.23; Inés Arrimadas gets a 3.66; and Santiago Abascal repeats as the worst valued political leader with a score of 2.71.

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