Tue. Apr 23rd, 2019

The CIS points to a historic victory of ERC in Catalonia

El CIS apunta a una histórica victoria de ERC en Catalunya

The polls are still smiling at ERC. The presiding party Oriol Junqueras would become the first force in Catalonia in the face of general elections, according to the results of the macro-survey published this Tuesday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The Republicans would take the cat to the water with a historical result - this formation has never won a general or an independentist formation ever, achieving between 17 and 18 seats, according to the estimate of the poll.

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The triumph of ERC would be incontestable, according to the data. It could double the results obtained in the 2016 elections and it would be the most voted force in the four districts, achieving between 9 and 10 seats in Barcelona, ​​3 in Girona, 2 in Lleida and another 3 in Tarragona.

The Republicans would follow the PSC-PSOE, training that would get between 12 and 14 seats. The Socialists, led in Catalonia by Meritxell Batet, could also double the results of 2016, when they won 7 seats, and they would do so at the expense of En Comú Podem, the formation that in the last two generals had snatched the victory in Catalonia. The commons, which are led by Jaume Asens, could lose 5 seats and stay in a range of 5-7.

Another formation that would lose strength with respect to 2016 would be Citizens. The formation that managed to prevail in the Catalan elections of 21-D maintains its tendency to not obtain by far the same good results in the general elections. If in 2016, the candidacy then led by Juan Carlos Girauta won 5 seats, this time, with Inés Arrimadas in the lead, the oranges would stay in 4, getting 3 in Barcelona and one in Tarragona.

Judging by the survey, the spectacular rise of ERC has one main victim: the candidacy of Junts per Catalunya (JxCat), which would be far from the results obtained by its predecessor Convergència three years ago. The list led by Jordi Sànchez and Laura Borràs would get between 4-5 seats while the old convergents won 8 seats in 2016.

The other great news of the CIS is the possible irruption of Vox in the Catalan map. The extreme right could add 3 seats in Catalonia (in particular, in Barcelona) to 29-37 that the survey gives them in the whole of the State.

The entrance of Vox would be to the detriment of the PP, whose bet by Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo would not be translating at the moment in electoral support. In fact, the popular ones would only manage to place their head of the list for Barcelona in the Congress. If confirmed, it would be a resounding fall compared to 2016, when the popular ones - then led by Jorge Fernández Díaz - won 6 seats.

Finally, the survey gives the possibility that the PACMA animalists obtain a seat in the district of Barcelona. On the other hand, the Front Republicà candidacy, formed by a sector of the CUP and a split party of Podem, would not get any seats in the Congress of Deputies.

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