October 21, 2020

The CIS maintains the PSOE as the winner of the elections but the PP cuts more than one point away in a month


CIS October 2020

CIS vote estimate (in% of the total valid vote)


The PSOE would once again win the elections with better results than those it obtained on November 10, according to the October barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). The Socialists remain above 30% in vote estimate, but fall compared to the last poll. The PP, for its part, achieves a slight ascent that allows it to cut the distance in more than one point.

According to this month’s barometer, whose sample was collected between October 1 and 7, the PSOE would obtain 30.8% of the votes, compared to the 28% with which it won in the elections. They are two points more than almost a year ago, but less than those given by the last barometer, which placed the Socialists at 31.5%, and even more below the results of July, where they had 32, one%.

The PP is still very far from the PSOE although it manages to shorten the distance that separated them in the last poll. Those of Pablo Casado would now take, according to the CIS, 18.9% of the votes, eight tenths more than in September. That allows them to cut the distance by 1.5 points, but the results continue to leave them above those obtained in 10N, when they achieved 20.8%.

It is, however, a minimal consolation for the formation of Casado, which is trying to recover after the CIS in July placed them above 21%, even improving the results of the general elections.

The poll published this Thursday also shows a fall of United We Can, which goes from 12.2% to 11.7 and a rise of Vox, which achieves a 12.5% ​​intention to vote compared to the 11.7% it gave the September barometer. Both parties had hardly suffered variations in the last polls. Unidos Podemos is still a few tenths below its 10N results, while the far right is far from the 15.1% with which it rose in the general elections.

The worst part of this CIS goes to Ciudadanos, which experienced the biggest drop: it went from 10.6% a month ago to 8.8%. Inés Arrimadas’s party thus returns to the voting intention it had in July, which is still higher than the votes it took in the 10N hit.

Pedro Sánchez remains the best valued leader although his grade drops three tenths, to 4.3. In second place is Inés Arrimadas, who falls below 4 in this poll. Pablo Casado and Pablo Iglesias are only one tenth apart while Santiago Abascal repeats one more CIS as the political leader with but note, a 2.5.

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