The CIS keeps the PSOE ahead of the PP but reduces its distance to 1.6 points

CIS May 2022

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

The Center for Sociological Research maintains the PSOE as the winner of the general elections if they were held now. Its barometer for the month of May gives Pedro Sánchez's men the same estimate as a month ago, but it does indicate that their advantage over the PP is reduced to just 1.6 points. The Feijóo effect allows the popular to continue to rise. Its rise, moreover, does not affect Vox, which is also growing.

That is the general image left by a CIS produced between May 3 and 12, which coincided with the Pegasus espionage crisis. Despite this, the barometer does not show any deterioration for the PSOE, which remains at the same numbers as a month ago, still above the psychological barrier of 30%.

With the 30.3% vote estimate given by the CIS, the Socialists would win the elections with better data than those obtained in November 2019, when they won 28% of the vote.

The PP, for its part, continues to rise. The popular ones have gone from the 21.3% they had in February, when they experienced their internal crisis, to the 28.7% they would obtain now, according to CIS estimates. This data places them well above their result in 10N (20.8%) and allows them to get closer to the battle to beat the PSOE, who are only 1.6 points behind. It is the shortest distance collected by the CIS.

This rise in the PP does not affect Vox, which did see its electoral aspirations diminished last month, but which in this barometer goes back. The far-right party recovers from 14.8% in April to 16.6% in May, its best figure in a CIS barometer, after its president, José Félix Tezanos, changed the estimation method by admitting that had not measured its electoral impact well.

The CIS of May 2022 compared to 10N

CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote)

Behind Vox is United We Can, which this month suffers a drop of more than one point and remains below 10%. If general elections were held now, Ione Belarra's party would get 9.6% of the vote according to the CIS, compared to 10.7% a month ago. In the November 2019 elections, his result was 12.9%.

Citizens harvest in this CIS one of its worst data. Inés Arrimadas's party would only obtain 1.8% of the votes. In February, his vote expectation was close to 5%, but it has plummeted these months to even lose 2%. With these results, Ciudadanos would not get representation in Congress.

Only Yolanda Díaz approves

The assessment of the political leaders leaves the Vice President and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, as the only one who obtains the approval. Díaz gets a grade of 5.05 and repeats for another month as the best valued politician in the CIS. Alberto Núñez Feijóo has lost the pass he got last month and is now left with a grade of 4.86.

Behind them is the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, who obtained a rating of 4.28. The table is completed by Íñigo Errejón (4.00), Inés Arrimadas (3.58) and Santiago Abascal (2.91).

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