March 8, 2021

The challenge of succeeding a magician | Economy



Before sitting down to his first council of government in the ECB (2011), Mario Draghi had already forged his first decision: to lower interest rates, to combat the recession's rebound.
He came and kissed the saint. He proposed the rebate, cold. A hawk opposed. With trap: conditioned his yes to not make another rebate at the next meeting, something very rigid because the situation was dizzying.

The Finnish and draghista Erkki Liikanen called for a break, appealed to his Nordic ID, and convinced the dissident. If not, the dissent would have been read in Germany with a contemptuous dismissal of the lack of Italian rigor: the end.

Draghi let himself be helped. But before I started I knew what I should do. He knew the trade. That's why in the southern debt crisis, he saved the euro with the phrase "I'll do whatever it takes" (07/26/2012).

That is why he refounded the house into "hardly recognizable," as Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist with Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) and Christine Lagarde, puts it: "The ECB has transformed itself, from providing liquidity, to the massive purchase of a large batch of assets, to negative interests, while maintaining and reinforcing their credibility. "

When Lagarde reaches his first council, in November, you will surely find two key decisions activated or matured: the new stimuli (reduction of types and purchases of assets) and the new inflation target, 2% to dry, without the deflationist " under, but close to 2%. "

It should not, therefore, be so creative start, its objective difficulty not being technical in monetary policy. Bent from the superpolitical aroma of your choice in package, which shadows independence. And tripled of the affaire Bernard Tapie, which will make you sweat in your examination before Parliament.

And he can dedicate himself to learning at a gallop, from what he has proven capable of. And to exploit his gifts: dove active (providing financing for ransoms); of contrafigura of the hawks (adieu, Jens Weidmann, a relief); of communicator (more fluid than almost all other candidates).
Lagarde is liberal by American studies, conservative to the French – something different to reactionary – and semikeynesian for apprenticeship in the IMF forged by DSK.

Thus, he has advocated expansive budgetary policies (where possible). Read in your (better?) Speech: "If public investment is properly designed and executed efficiently, a duty in a context of strong budgetary constraints, the rise in GDP can counteract the increase in public debt, so that it does not grow more than the economy "(Investment for the future, Aix en Provence, 4/6/2014).

It is a basis for modulating the confluence and coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, the great challenge of the moment.

For the rescue of an entity by a central bank ends up financing the Treasury. And because without a common fiscal and banking space the transmission of monetary decisions lapses, since they generate disparate effects according to the dispersion of the eurozone (real rates of very different banks to the client). What a subject

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