The CEOE foresees a fall in the economy of between 8% and 15.5% in 2020, depending on the evolution of the return to activity and the impact that a possible confinement could have due to a resurgence of the virus in the autumn and its intensity.
A report on the strategy for the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, presented this Monday, details that in a central scenario, without an outbreak in autumn, economic growth would fall by 8%, a figure that has worsened by three points the forecast in its projections a month ago (-5%).
In this scenario, the report assures, Spain overcomes the pandemic in the third quarter of 2020 and recovers normalcy in terms of mobility in the second half of 2020.
If, coinciding with the return of children to schools in the autumn, there were a resurgence of contagion cases that required a new general confinement of the population, economic activity in Spain would fall by 12%, according to the forecasts made by the CEOE within the central stage.
This scenario “could be aggravated if there is no early, coordinated and forceful action on both the health front (massive tests) and the economic front (support measures), to prevent permanent damage, which in principle is a temporary shock. , long-term unemployment and closure of productive companies “.
If so, the decline in the economy would be 15.5%, much higher than the 9% that the CEOE employer viewed a month ago as the most pessimistic scenario.
In this adverse scenario, the CEOE vice president, Íñigo Fernández de Mesa, explained in the presentation of the report, there is “a much harder level of paralysis and confinement and a much slower recovery of activity.”
This scenario would also be influenced by worse health forecasts, considering the possibility that antivirals and the vaccine will be delayed.