The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has grown 3% less than it could have done – which amounts to 66,000 million pounds (or 77,300 million euros) – since the referendum favorable to the "brexit" of 2016, indicated on Thursday Standard & Poor's (S & P).
The credit risk assessment agency argues that the biggest factor in the contraction of economic activity in the ten quarters since the plebiscite was "the depreciation of the pound, which instigated an increase in inflation."
"The result in the end was the erosion of the purchasing power of households and a reduction in demand," S & P said in the report "The countdown to the 'brexit': what could have been for the British economy."
National inflation reached a peak of 3% at the end of 2017, recalls the agency, although since then it has fallen and is currently at 1.8%.
S & P notes that the devaluation of the pound sterling, which fell by 18% just after the consultation of June 23, 2016, "has not translated into a significant boost of foreign trade" (due to an alleged reduction in exports).
This could be, he explains, because the goods exported by the United Kingdom have in themselves a high component of imported parts or because the bulk of British exports are services, less sensitive to prices than goods.
The US agency notes that the persistent uncertainty about the exit process of the European Union (EU) has also paralyzed business investment, especially in 2018.
According to the latest data from the British Government, GDP grew by 1.4% in 2018, compared to 1.8% in 2017, and an expansion of 1.4% in 2020 and 1.6% in the three is expected. following years, although everything will depend on how the brexit ends.